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- Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility#4. Without a vaccine, there is a 10% chance that Steven will get the coronavirus in 2021. If he gets vaccinated, that risk falls to 1%. Without a vaccines, Steven gets -6000 utils if he gets covid and 0 utils if he stays healthy. Because of side effects, he gets -100 utils from the vaccine if he stays healthy and -6100 if he gets sick anyways. What will Steven do? a. He will get vaccinated b. He will not get vaccinated c. He will get vaccinated if he is risk-averse but not if he is risk-loving d. He will get vaccinated if he is risk-loving but not if he is risk-averseDefine the term Aggregating Risk over time?
- If a risk-averse individual owns a home worth $100,000, and that individual is willing to pay $1,000 for an annual fire insurance policy that covers the entire loss in the event of a fire, then we know that: A. There is a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire in the next year B. There is a greater than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire in the next year C. There is less than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire in the next year D. None of the above is correctDescribe the difference between risk and uncertainty. Which one is more preferable and why?If a risk‐averse individual owns a home worth $100,000, and that individual iswilling to pay a maximum of $1,000 for an annual fire insurance policy that covers theentire loss in the event of a fire, then we know that:A. There is a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire inthe next yearB. There is a greater than a one percent chance that the home will bedestroyed by fire in the next yearC. There is less than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyedby fire in the next yearD. None of the above is correct
- True or False: You can protect against unsystematic risk. O True O FalseThe project manager of Good Public Relations gatheredthe data shown in Table 7.15 for a new advertisingcampaign.a. How long is the project likely to take? b. What is the probability that the project will take more than38 weeks?c. Consider the path A–E–G–H–J. What is the probability thatthis path will exceed 38 weeks?Economics Shawn's consumption is subject to risk. With probability 0.75 he will enjoy 10000 in consumption, but with probability 0.25 he will have only 3600. His utility function for consumption is given by v(c) = Vc. -What is the expected value of Shawn's consumption? -What is his expected utility? -What is his certainty equivalent of having 10000 with probability 0.75 and 3600 with probability 0.25?
- 36. Over the centuries several eminent thinkers have offered insights into the prob- lems of decision making in the face of risk. Which of the following lists places the the thinkers in correct chronological order, from earliest to latest? (a) Pierre Simon de Laplace, Daniel Bernoulli, John von Neumann, Christian Huygens, Amos Tversky (b) Daniel Bernoulli, Christian Huygens, Pierre Simon de Laplace, Amos Tversky, John von Neumann (c) Daniel Bernoulli, Pierre Simon de Laplace, Christian Huygens, Amos Tversky, John von Neumann (d) Christian Huygens, Daniel Bernoulli, Pierre Simon de Laplace, John von Neumann, Amos TverskyJohnny is "paid" by his parents $2o if he gets a grade A, $10 if he gets a grade B, whereas he has to pay his parents back $5 if he gets a grade other than A or B. On average 20% of the grades he gets are A, and 30% are grades B. What is the expected value of what he "earns" per grade ? What is the expected value of what he "earns" at school weekly if on average he gets five grades a week ? How long should Jim save until he collects enough money to buy a pair of brand new Hi-Fi headphones that cost $225?Define the term Risk Analysis?
