For the period 1970-1991 for the United States the following two rival consumption models were estimated using the data on personal consumption expenditure (PPCE) and per capita disposable personal income (PDPI). Model A: PPCE, = 1299,05+0,9204PDPI,+ 0,0931PDPI_1 R = 0,988 t= (4,03) (6,01) (0,63) AIC = 12,91 SC=13,06 Model B: PPCE, =-841,85+0,7117PDPI,+0,2954PPCE, R = 0,9912 t= (-2,41) (5,46) (2,36) AIC=12,66 SC=12,81 To choose between those two alternative models Davidson Mackinnon J test is applied. The results are as follows: PPCE, = -1322,79+0,7061PDPI, - 0,4357PDPI,+2,1335PPCE R =0,9932 SE = (832,15) (0,5058) (0,1987) (0,6437) where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model B. PPCE, = -6549,86+5,1176PDPI, + 0, 6302PPCE,1- 4, 6776PPCE R = 0,9920 SE = (2622,46) (2,0129) (0,1845) (17,4082) where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model A. a) Decide the better model by using model selection criteria of Akaike and Schwarz. b) According to the J test results which model is better?

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For the period 1970-1991 for the United States the following two rival consumption
models were estimated using the data on personal consumption expenditure (PPCE)
and per capita disposable personal income (PDPI).
Model A: PPCE, = 1299,05+0,9204PDPI,+ 0,0931PDPI_1
R = 0,988
t= (4,03)
(6,01)
(0,63)
AIC = 12,91 SC=13,06
Model B: PPCE, =-841,85+0,7117PDPI,+0,2954PPCE,
R = 0,9912
t= (-2,41)
(5,46)
(2,36)
AIC=12,66
SC=12,81
To choose between those two alternative models Davidson Mackinnon J test is
applied. The results are as follows:
PPCE, = -1322,79+0,7061PDPI, - 0,4357PDPI,+2,1335PPCE
R =0,9932
SE = (832,15) (0,5058)
(0,1987)
(0,6437)
where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model B.
PPCE, = -6549,86+5,1176PDPI, + 0, 6302PPCE,1- 4, 6776PPCE
R = 0,9920
SE = (2622,46) (2,0129)
(0,1845)
(17,4082)
where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model A.
a) Decide the better model by using model selection criteria of Akaike and
Schwarz.
b) According to the J test results which model is better?
Transcribed Image Text:For the period 1970-1991 for the United States the following two rival consumption models were estimated using the data on personal consumption expenditure (PPCE) and per capita disposable personal income (PDPI). Model A: PPCE, = 1299,05+0,9204PDPI,+ 0,0931PDPI_1 R = 0,988 t= (4,03) (6,01) (0,63) AIC = 12,91 SC=13,06 Model B: PPCE, =-841,85+0,7117PDPI,+0,2954PPCE, R = 0,9912 t= (-2,41) (5,46) (2,36) AIC=12,66 SC=12,81 To choose between those two alternative models Davidson Mackinnon J test is applied. The results are as follows: PPCE, = -1322,79+0,7061PDPI, - 0,4357PDPI,+2,1335PPCE R =0,9932 SE = (832,15) (0,5058) (0,1987) (0,6437) where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model B. PPCE, = -6549,86+5,1176PDPI, + 0, 6302PPCE,1- 4, 6776PPCE R = 0,9920 SE = (2622,46) (2,0129) (0,1845) (17,4082) where PPCE are the estimated PPCE values from Model A. a) Decide the better model by using model selection criteria of Akaike and Schwarz. b) According to the J test results which model is better?
Expert Solution
Step 1

The model with the lowest AIC value being considered the ‘best’.

From the provided information, the AIC value of Model A is 12.91, and the AIC model of Model B is 12.66.

Therefore, Model B is a better model than model A because Model B having the lowest AIC value.

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