Suppose that 55% of voters in a population support Prop. 7061. a) What probability distribution you might want to use to model the number of voters supporting Prop. 7061 in a poll of 200 people? Choice 1 of 5: Binom(200,0.55) Choice 2 of 5:Pois(110) Choice 3 of 5:Binom(200,0.45) Choice 4 of 5:Geom(0.55) Choice 5 of 5:Geom(110) b)What is the expected number of voters in the poll that support Prop. 7061? Choice 1 of 5: 55 Choice 2 of 5:90 Choice 3 of 5:110 Choice 4 of 5:120 Choice 5 of 5:155 c) What is the probability that your poll claims that Proposition A will fail? Choice 1 of 5:0.052 Choice 2 of 5:0.068 Choice 3 of 5:0.1 Choice 4 of 5:0.12 Choice 5 of 5:0.22 d) It is common to use two standard deviations as a reasonable margin for error in such settings. What is the margin of error for your poll? Choice 1 of 5:7.03 (or about 3.5% of the sample population) Choice 2 of 5:14.06 (or about 7% of the sample population) Choice 3 of 5:48.4 (or about 24.5% of the sample population) Choice 4 of 5:96.8 (or about 48.5% of the sample population) Choice 5 of 5:110 (or about 50% of the sample population) e) The margin of error decreases as the poll size increases. How large a poll would you need to reduce the margin of error to around 2% of the sample population? Choice 1 of 4:approx 500 Choice 2 of 4:approx 1500 Choice 3 of 4:approx 2500 Choice 4 of 4:approx 3500
Suppose that 55% of voters in a population support Prop. 7061.
a) What probability distribution you might want to use to model the number of voters supporting Prop. 7061 in a poll of 200 people?
Choice 1 of 5: Binom(200,0.55)
Choice 2 of 5:Pois(110)
Choice 3 of 5:Binom(200,0.45)
Choice 4 of 5:Geom(0.55)
Choice 5 of 5:Geom(110)
b)What is the expected number of voters in the poll that support Prop. 7061?
Choice 1 of 5: 55
Choice 2 of 5:90
Choice 3 of 5:110
Choice 4 of 5:120
Choice 5 of 5:155
c) What is the probability that your poll claims that Proposition A will fail?
Choice 1 of 5:0.052
Choice 2 of 5:0.068
Choice 3 of 5:0.1
Choice 4 of 5:0.12
Choice 5 of 5:0.22
d) It is common to use two standard deviations as a reasonable margin for error in such settings. What is the margin of error for your poll?
Choice 1 of 5:7.03 (or about 3.5% of the sample population)
Choice 2 of 5:14.06 (or about 7% of the sample population)
Choice 3 of 5:48.4 (or about 24.5% of the sample population)
Choice 4 of 5:96.8 (or about 48.5% of the sample population)
Choice 5 of 5:110 (or about 50% of the sample population)
e) The margin of error decreases as the poll size increases. How large a poll would you need to reduce the margin of error to around 2% of the sample population?
Choice 1 of 4:approx 500
Choice 2 of 4:approx 1500
Choice 3 of 4:approx 2500
Choice 4 of 4:approx 3500
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