Exam 2 MSOM Example Problems

.xlsx

School

Temple University *

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Course

3103

Subject

Economics

Date

Feb 20, 2024

Type

xlsx

Pages

131

Uploaded by tuq05086 on coursehero.com

1). A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sel The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 A $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 B $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 C ($400,000) $240,000 $800,000 $ 384,000.00 B 2). Suppose a manufacturing plant is considering three options for expansion. The first one is to expand into a new plant (large), the second to add on third-shift to the daily There are three possibilities for demand. These are high, medium, and low with the probability Suppose that the profits for the expansion plans are as follows (respective to high, medium, low The large expansion profits are $100000, $10000, -$10000, the medium expansion choice $400 $ 50,000.00 3). Chris Suit is administrator for Lowell Hospital. She is trying to determine whether to build a If the population of Lowell continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospit If a small wing were built, it would return $100,000 to the hospital each year if the population If the population of Lowell remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 w Unfortunately, Suit does not have any information about the future population of Lowell. Growth Loss Probability 0.5 0.5 1. What is the highest EMV? 2. Which action should be selected? a. What is the highest EMV? b. Which of the expansion plans should the manager choose? a. Assuming that each state of nature has the same likelihood, determine the best alternative. b. If the likelihood of growth is .4 and that of remaining the same is .6 and the decision criterio
Large Wing $ 150,000.00 $ (85,000.00) Small Wing $ 100,000.00 $ (45,000.00) 4). Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has be Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated. Firm However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells h approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 y She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% d Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, resp 5). A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies that have relatively lifelike motions. These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechan The total investment cost for the Wind-Up action is $45,000; The investment cost for the Pneu Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand a light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy dema PROBABLITIES 0.2 0.45 Demand Light Moderate Wind -up action $250,000 $400,000 Pneumatic $90,000 $440,000 Electronic ($100,000) $400,000 $ 412,500.00 $ 420,000.00 $ 359,500.00 d. Based on EMV what choice should be made? Pneumatic a. What is the EMV in terms of years if Tucker decided not to have surgery? b. What is the EMV in terms of years if Tucker decided to have the surgery? c. Based on EMV, do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? a. What is the EMV for the Wind Up option? b. What is the EMV for the Pneumatic option? c. What is the EMV for the Electronic option?
6). Bratt's Bed and Breakfast, in a small historic New England town, must decide how to subdiv There are three alternatives: Option A would modernize all baths and combine rooms, leaving Option B would modernize only the second floor; the results would be six suites, four for two t Option C (the status quo option) leaves all walls intact. In this case, there are eight rooms avail Below are the details of profit and demand patterns that will accompany each option. Which o Annual profit under two customer reservation scenarios: Reservations at Capacity Probability A (Modernize all) $90,000 0.5 B (Modernize 2nd) $80,000 0.4 C (Status Quo) $60,000 0.3 B (Modernize 2nd) $74,000 7). Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The qu Percent Defective Probability Winter Park Tech Probability Dayton Enterprises 1 0.7 0.3 3 0.2 0.3 5 0.1 0.4 For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Winter Park Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a .70 probability o A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. Although the quality of the test set $ 90.00 $ 123.00 a. Which option should be chosen? b. What is the EMV of that option? Based on evaluating cost, answer the following questions: a. What is the node value for Winter Park? b. What is the node value for Dayton? c. Based on cost, which supplier should Deborah Kellogg select?
8). Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a com If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not pr Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss o a. What is the highest EMV $ $ 320,000.00 add plant addition 9). Steve Gentry, the operations manager of Baja Fabricators, wants to purchase a new profilin However, because the price of crude oil is depressed, the market for such equipment is down. Steve believes that the market will improve in the near future and that the company should ex The table below displays the three equipment options he is currently considering, and the profi The consensus forecast at Baja is that there is about a 30% probability that the market will pick Equipment option Investment in dollars State of Nature Probability (soon) Manual Machine 25,000 -120,000 NC Machine 68,500 140,000 CNC Machine 75,000 200,000 Probability 30% What is the EMV for the Manual Machine option based on profit/loss? $ b. What is the EMV for the NC Machine option based on profit/loss? $ c. What is the EMV for the CNC Machine option based on profit/loss? $ Manual Machine 10). Jeff Kaufmann’s machine shop sells a variety of machines for job shops. A customer wants The model XPO2 sells for $180,000, but Jeff is out of XPO2s. The customer says he will wait for Jeff knows that there is a wholesale market for XPO2s from which he can purchase an XPO2. b. Based on EMV what is your decision? d. What decision should Steve Gentry make?
Jeff can buy an XPO2 today for $150,000, or he can wait a day and buy an XPO2 (if one is availa If at least one XPO2 is still available tomorrow, Jeff can wait until the day after tomorrow and b There is a 0.40 probability that there will be no model XPO2s available tomorrow. If there are model XPO2s available tomorrow, there is a 0.70 probability that by the day after t Three days from now, it is certain that no model XPO2s will be available on the wholesale mark Purchase tomorrow *highest expected profit* 11). Boyer Inc. is considering the introduction of a new product. This product can be manufactured in one of several ways: Using the present system at a variab They can upgrade the present system, which will have a variable cost of $48.00 per unit, and a That last option consists of adding a new system with a per unit variable cost of $25.00, and an The organization is worried however, about the impact of competition. If no competition occurs, they expect to manufacture 4,500, 6,800, and 8,800 units for the pre With competition, they expect to manufacture: 3,750, 5,500, and 6,700 units respectively. Based on evaluating cost, determine the following: $ 239,487.50 $ 318,032.00 $ 235,075.00 New system *lowest total cost* a. What is the maximum expected profit if Jeff makes the purchase today? b. What is the maximum expected profit if Jeff makes the purchase tomorrow? c. What is the maximum expected profit if Jeff makes the purchase two days from now? d. What is the maximum expected profit if Jeff makes the purchase three days from now? e. What should Jeff do? At the moment their best estimate is that there is a 57% chance of competition. They decided a. What is the EMV for using the present system? b. What is the EMV for upgrading the present system? c. What is the EMV for installing a new system? d. Which decision should Boyer Inc. make?
lls. , therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. EMV $ 217,750.00 $ 384,000.00 $ 248,000.00 schedule (medium), and the third to do nothing (small). y of .5 (H), .25 (M), .25 (L) of occurring. w demand). 000, $40000, $5000 and the small expansion choice $15000, $15000, $15000. High demand Large Probability 0.5 Large $ 100,000.00 Medium $ 40,000.00 Small $ 15,000.00 large wing on the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. tal each year. continues to grow. with a large wing and a loss of $45,000 with a small wing. Large Wing EMV Growth Loss Probability 0.4 0.6 , what is the EM on is expected monetary value, which decision should Suit make?
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