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Economic And Political Interests Of Oil Exporting Economies

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INTRODUCTION
Oil-exporting economies need to save more of their resource windfall, rather than increasing investment and consumption. They should save the difference between the budgeted and the actual prices of crude oil for example. This would be a stabilization fund for strategic, economic and political interests (Kolawole, 2014). This increase in savings would lead to an increase in the demand for dollar-denominated assets, which ultimately would enable the expansion of the US current account deficit (Setser, 2007).

The real exchange rate, which is a measure of the price of foreign goods, relative to domestic goods across different countries, is a critical factor in determining the capital account, along with the interest rate. It is …show more content…

An increase in spending leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate, as the government is using external resources to drive up demand for local goods and services. In the event of a resource windfall, there would often be a currency crisis which would ultimately lead to a shrinking of money and credit, which could precipitate a recession (Frankel, 2010). There is a direct relationship between resource windfall, economic growth and a country’s exchange rate. In Nigeria for example, there is an overdependence of the economy on oil revenue. The local currency is pegged to the US dollar and as such, increases in oil prices have a direct impact on inflation rates. This predisposes the economy to a mismatch between the volatile revenues and the relative stable spending commitments, which in turn, means instability of government revenue. This has resulted in the movement of labour and capital from the agriculture industry into oil and gas.
Government spending is a critical factor in the hypothesis of the Dutch disease and therefore, the overall effects of resource windfalls on macroeconomic stability and growth are determined by the nature and quality of the political institutions in place. There should be a transparency of all payments, which would force governments to be accountable to the rule of law. There should also be a process to share the “excess” revenue from a resource windfall, which would include saving for future generations

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