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Economic Trends In Transportation Industry

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Earnings: Trendline Remains Constructive; Transport, Tech & Financials Lead Earnings expectations have ramped higher as top-line growth has stabilized and begun to recover. It is notable that earnings revisions have improved in the past three months but remain benign. See Fig 3.3. Sectors like Transportation, Technology, Utilities and Financials currently hold the most aggressive forecasts. Roughly 90% of all estimates in the Transports sector are being raised; this is roughly two standard deviations above the norm! Similarly, 68% of estimates for the Technology sector are being raised; this is slightly better than one standard deviation above the norm. It is notable that one of the most significant improvements in forecasts outside of …show more content…

Consumer Discretionary firms continue to be driven by Internet Retail (26.7%), Autos (6.3%) and Footwear (6.5%). Calendar: US companies have started reporting their Q1 2017 earnings. During the week of April 24th more than 100 Large Cap companies are expected to report (fig 3.1). At the sector level 36% of Large Cap financial companies are expected to report their earnings during week of April 17th (fig 3.2) and during week of April 24th more than 50% of companies in the Materials, Industrials, Transports, and Real Estate sectors are expected to report. Prior to Q4, sales surprises increased over the previous 5 quarters as analyst expectations were lower than the company’s reported results. Last quarter, sales surprises dipped for the first time in nearly 2 years as fundamental expectations caught up with the companies reported results. We expect surprise rates for both earnings and sales to be similar to the prior quarter surprises which was a rate of 75% of earnings and 51% of the revenues reported (See Fig 1.1). Sector Comments: Upward earnings revisions for the Large Cap Energy sector are currently being cut for 68% of the group. This is a level just below long term averages. Analysts have cut estimates for roughly 78% of the Storage & Transportation group. On the other hand estimates are being raised for 75% of the Large Cap Exploration & Production industry. Sales Growth for the

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