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Equity And Bonds Returns : The End Of A Golden Era? Essay

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Equity and Bonds Returns: The End of a Golden Era?
Despite numerous periods of global financial excesses, and subsequent corrections, over the past 30 years, the returns on equities and bonds in the US and Europe have been considerably above their long-term averages. The outperformance has been most pronounced in long-dated government bonds. The average annual real return on these instruments between 1985 and 2014 was +5.0% in the US and +5.9% in Europe, compared to long-run returns of +1.7% and +1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the outperformance of equities between 1985 and 2014 was more modest. The average annual real return on US equities was +7.9%, compared to a long-run average of +6.5%, while these respective measures in Europe were +7.9% and +4.9%. Two major related factors can predominantly explain this golden period for both bonds and equities, namely the taming of inflation and the subsequent decline in interest rates to historic lows. Both inflation and interest rates are important inputs into valuation models for long duration assets, thereby implying that their respective influences on returns over the past 30 years have, therefore, been largely felt through changing valuations. Equity returns are, however, explained by other factors, including economic and corporate fundamentals, of varying complexity. Positive demographics, technological innovation, and global supply chains have also helped to contain costs, while the emergence of new markets, notably China,

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