GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND THEIR LIKELY IMPACT ON SOUTH AFRICA
INDEX:
Table of Contents
Global prospects and their likely impact on South Africa 1
INDEX: 1
Strength of the Recovery 2
Developed Countries: 2
Emerging Markets: 2
Risks to the Global Economy 3
Exit Strategy from Policy Stimulus 4
Repair and reform of the financial sector 4
Fiscal Crises and underinvestment in Infrastructure 4
Socio and Political Implications of Unemployment and Private Demand 5
Asset Price Collapse and the risk appetite of investors 5
Return to Previous Growth Path or Not 5
Will the current crises be “DÉJÀ VU ‘” for the world wide economy? 6
Fundamental Changes in Origins & Nature of Economic Activity 6
Global warming / Climate Change: 7
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The number of unemployed people fell by 33,000 to 2.45 million in the three months to January (compared with the previous quarter), which is the lowest level for almost a year and the largest decline over a three-month period for almost three years.
Average weekly earnings also increased during the three-month period up to January 2010, namely by 1.4% (compared to a year ago), up slightly from 1.2 per cent in the quarter to December. (Roelof Botha – Macroeconomic report)
Emerging Markets:
Several emerging market economies are expected to return to pre-recession growth trajectories during 2010, with China and India having defied the global economic downturn altogether.
CHINA
China has been leading the pack of a growing number of emerging markets that are rapidly closing the GDP gap between developing nations and post-industrial economies.
In mid-March, The World Bank raised its growth forecast for China for 2010 to 9.5%. In November last year, the bank’s forecast for 2010 growth was 8.7%. Other forecasting agencies are even more optimistic, with the OECD forecasting growth of 10.2% in 2010, dropping marginally to 9.3% in 2011. (www.economist.com)
INDIA
According to provisional estimates by the IMF, India’s GDP recorded a real growth rate of 5.4% in 2009 and the forecasts for 2010 & 2011 are 6.4% and 7.3%,
China has been improving its economy from last few years.It is only due to its efforts to overcome USA
The economic growth rate of China rate grew by 1.8 percent following the measure of economic growth which is the GDP growth rate. The GDP growth rate is one of the adequate economic growth measures. It indicates that the rate expanded 1.8 percent in the second quarter of 2016 increasing from the previous quarter of 1.2 percent growth. It also surpassed the market projections of 1.6 percent expansion (Levchenko & Zhang, 2016). It was the strongest economic growth
According to easynomics.com, from Q3 2012-Q2 2015, there was a confirmed upward trend with real GDP rising which translates to approximately 2.26 percent annual growth rate. Although the increase rate is too slow that people may not feel the recovery, but it does suggest the increase.
China has reached a milestone in terms of achieving its centenarian goal of making China a prosperous nation once again. One of the ways that it has done this is by having steady economic growth even in the midst of an economic crisis. Not only has China’s economy grown, but its standard of living has also improved, it has achieved this by spending 70 percent of its fiscal revenue towards improving people’s standard of living. China has also pushed more anti-corruption reforms and has made efforts towards widening its economy by setting up freer trade.
The rise in China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of twenty-eight years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest success stories in these present times. With China receiving an increase in the amount of trade business from many countries around the world, they may soon be a major competitor to surpass the U.S. China became the second largest economy, last year, overtaking Japan which had held that position since 1968 (Gallup). China could become the world’s largest economy in decades.
The forecast for US GDP for the next five years is positive with an average rate of 1.94 percent. From 2016 to 2020, the growth of US GDP as per the forecast will be 2 in 2016, 1.8 in 2017, 1.9 in 2018, 2 in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020 respectively (United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook). According to the actual or aggregate forecast for the next five years, US GDP will be $ 18,295 billion in the year 2020. Therefore, the trend is positive, and US GDP will continue to rise gradually.
International trade and subdued investment combined conspired to the slowest world growth since 2009. World bank economic growth is expected to rise to 2.7% in 2017 from 2.3% last year. Throughout Europe and Japan, monetary support and fiscal policies should help support economy activity this year. In China, growth is projected around 6.5% which reflects certain factors like uncertainty about global trade, and private investments. China accounts for about one-tenth of all global imports and exports, and roughly one fifth of investment accounts but has slowed from 21% to 10% in the last few years. With the recovery in certain commodity prices, like oil, the divergence is expected to narrow heavily. The environment the world is in right is a difficult one, negative interest rates constrict monetary policies and may warrant more fiscal policies. What needs to be done is to initiate more useful policies to include human capital, investment, global technology transfer, and heavily promoting trade in order to obtain at least some level of positive
GDP now is in the US is 3.3%, GDP has lowered in the last 10 years. In 2007 the GDP in the US was 4.40%. There isn’t a pattern for how much it changed in 10 years it kind of went up and down since 2007. In the future I think that GDP will raise more and more.
2.5 percent in 2017. From 2018 through 2020, the economy would grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent, CBO projects. Consumer spending will be the largest single component of that growth, as it has been in the past years. However,the pickup in the growth of output from 2015 to 2016 and 2017 is likely to stem largely from faster grow with-thin investments in the business capital and housing. In the coming years, inflation is suppose to rise and as well as lowered unemployment rate will be slowly decreasing.
The Chinese economy is one of the biggest economies in the world. It is also the fastest growing economy in the world, with a current growth rate of 7.8%. The Chinese economy has multiple strategies to help promote the economic growth. One of which being, China investing heavily into education. Another strategy is attracting Foreign Direct Investors. Finally, one last strategy is China and their memberships in free trade agreements. Through these strategies China gained this high rate of growth and thrive to maintain it.
The author examines the proposition by Larry Summers, the United States Treasury Secretary, on the economic approach presented by China and India in regard to the next decade. Larry Summers observes that there is no certain growth in China, thus he urges people to deviate from the reliance on the predictions of sudden growth in Communist China, using what they term as Asiaphoria (WSJ). The most significant and acknowledged fact on cross national growth is the regression of data in relation to the mean. The authors argue that the evidence of continuous national growth in a period of a decade does not present a guarantee for continued growth. On the contrary, quick national growth has been noted to lead to a slump in the rate of economic growth.
The current rate of GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is 2.7% (for Q3), and it was 1.3% in Q2 of this year. This rate reflects relatively slow growth, with challenges remaining in the domestic market and with sluggishness in Europe suppressing exports to that region. The rate of GDP growth is predicted to slow to a decline of 0.5% between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the US re-entering recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office's projections. These projections are based on the provisions of the Budget Control Act being enacted, though any observers are doubtful that this will occur.
I do believe that China is the one country that will grow enough to rival the west, maybe even surpass it. Meaning, I can see China become somewhat like how the United is known in the world, economy, and power wise. In the “Rise of China” it states that “the size of its economy has quadrupled since the launch of market reforms in the late 1970S and, by some estimates, will double again over the next decade. It has become one of the world's major manufacturing centers and consumes roughly a third of the global supply of iron, steel, and coal”. So, China is looking to become a top player in the world (with United States and Europe) and there will be some type of change in not only their own country, but other counties as well. In order to continue to do
Growth in China and other emerging markets expected increase sales by 7.8% in 2015, reaching $350 billion