The steps and tests which were run in order to get a clear picture of the demand and how the regional development has increased for the Hong Kong Airport in particular are in discussion here. The demand forecast for the year 2015 has also been included in this report using the appropriate moving average method. In a nut shell, a moving average (MA) is defined as a pattern indicator or slacking pointer in light of the fact that it is in view of past values. The two essential and regularly utilized MAs are the straightforward moving average (SMA), which is the basic average of a security over a characterized number of time periods, and the weighted moving average (WMA), which gives greater weight to later values. The most well-known …show more content…
The monthly data for January 2015 and February 2015 was not included in the sample as it was not sufficient to forecast the demand.
2. The model has forecasted a demand for 2015.
3. In order to get a fair comparison we ignore the months used in MA3 and MA4 modelling along with the respective error terms.
4. It was assumed that the model which performed well in the past will be the one performing well in the future.
5. To be more specific with our results, Weighted Moving Average model was further applied by assigning equal weights to all the years at first and running the solver analysis.
Results & Discussion:
Air transport has turned out to be more imperative to Hong Kong exchange throughout the years. 36% and 41% of Hong Kong 's aggregate fares and imports were done through air transport in the initial ten months of 2014, contrasted and 26% and 19% in 1980 individually. Hong Kong 's effectiveness in traditions leeway and its status as a free port are among the fundamental donors to this increment. Basic traditions leeway and 24-hour operation of HKIA makes it advantageous for merchandise bound for the Chinese territory to experience Hong Kong for the terrain. In 2013, Hong Kong 's aggregate fares via air came to HK$ 1,254 billion, up 8.7% from 2012. For imports via air around the same time, they came to HK$ 1,599 billion, up 6.0% from 2012. (Jacqueline Yuen, 2015)
The trends regarding the market over all are discussed below:
Referring to Figure 6.2.3 and 6.3.3, it was proven that our model has problems that the sample data used does not represent the whole population. Therefore, this is one of the flaws in our research. A more constructive suggestion to eliminate this problem would be to extend the research with a larger sample size with longer time horizon. And if the sample size is large enough, the time series issue can be neglected.
9. Refer to the model and estimates in the previous question. Ceteris paribus, according to these
many goods and services targeted to the mainland Chinese market was traded via Hong Kong
Furthermore, next will be a multiple regression analysis that will examine the relationship between the independent variables chosen with the dependent variable annual
Furthermore, in this article will be discussed the main issues related to the possibility of increasing airport taxes to be determined by the Hong Kong authority. As Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is one of the busiest airports and the government cannot possibly build new airport due to the area limitation of Hong Kong, the authority will build an additional runway (3rd runway), and it will impact to the airport operational costs. Finally, the Hong Kong Government will raise taxes to the airlines, and it will be a problem for HK Express as the only low-fare airline in Hong Kong.
To start off, a historical context will be given with regards to the events leading up to the colonization of Hong Kong. China had been exporting vast quantities of goods, such as porcelain, silk, and tea, to nations in Europe, with Britain taking up most of the exports. However, Britain was dissatisfied with the rate of their export to China. When a country has imports coming in and relatively less exports back to the respective country, the country (Britain, in this case) with imports coming in will lose money to the exporting country (China). As a result of this, Britain attempts to negotiate open trade with China and allow for more imports into
Years in round 6-8 are chosen for comparison. These three years are latest and consecutive in order to discover trends if any and make prediction for the future.
In this paper Learning Team A will explain how Delta Air Lines (Delta) has been affected by the economy, giving details about the positive and negative externalities as well as the shifts in price in elasticity of supply and demand. We will discuss how quantity demanded and quantity supplied has changed due to price changes and technology innovations. We will discuss how government regulations create surplus or shortage of airline flights.
Hence in the above computation, I had taken an assumption that the data provided on the top line is annual figures.
My first step is to remove the quarterly trend by taking a fourth difference. Taking a fourth difference will remove the quarterly trend that could be affecting my ability to determine if there is a time trend.
Cornwell is a glass manufacturer, with a variety of different glass in its production. The company utilizes an advanced forecasting system that uses data from past years to find seasonal factors and long-term trends. The current system yields data from its previous weeks to find the most recent trends. The following table presents the forecasted demands for the coming year on a weekly basis.
The implications of this analysis are that the focus on the Chinese market is justified. The Chinese air travel industry is booming, and indeed this is fueled by that country's rapid growth and the increased demand for
The procedure for this model is to collect several periods of history relating to the independent and dependent variables themselves, establish the relationship that minimizes mean squared error of forecast vs actual using linear or non-linear and singular or multiple regression analysis.
year 20X2 which was 1.78 to 0.90 in the year 20X3. On the other hand,
Air freight market is not stable and might be weak because of uncertain international trade increase (Barnard,2015). There was fluctuation in air cargo demand over the last 10 years from 2006 to 2016 which indicates that cargo demand could be changed by some external and internal influences. Some figures were released about worldwide air freight market and presented that air cargo capacity increased 2.2%, comparing to 2014. While this was the 5% growth calculated by The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the growth of cargo volumes in 2015 was much slower than 2014(Barnard, 2015). However, some experts pointed out that global air freight market get a positive growth from 2011, and it is enjoying a relatively steady growth, due to the enhanced trade and economic recovery after the global financial crisis of 2008(Huang,2016). Because of sluggish world trade growth, air cargo suppliers face a lot of challenges including alternative transportation, perspective uncertainty and unexpected policy and here are some potential solutions: improving customers service, efficiency, security and reducing negative environmental impacts.