Essay on Inflation

There are also many economists who would agree with the claim that zero inflation is the optimal rate of inflation. This claim employs

The United States inflation rates are a problem, if the government were to control them then the United States would flourish from a “B+” economy to a “A” economy. In the United States (September, 2015) consumer prices went up 1.5%,

The discussion of whether the Federal Reserve should raise the federal funds rate is a highly contentious one. Members of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) and academic economists disagree about what constitutes appropriate future macroeconomic policy for the Unites States. In the past, the Fed had been able to raise rates when the unemployment rate was under 5% and inflation was at a target of 2%. Enigmatically, since the Great Recession and despite a strengthening economy, year-over-year total inflation since 2008 has averaged only 1.4%—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (“PCE”). Today, PCE inflation is at 1-1.5% and has continuously undershot the Fed’s inflation target of 2% three years in a row. (Evan 2015) In the six years since the bottom of the Great Recession the U.S. economy has made great strides in lowering the published unemployment rate from about 10% back down to about 5.5%. In light of this data, certain individuals believe that the Federal Reserve should move to increase the federal funds rate in 2015 because unemployment is near 5% and inflation should bounce back on its own (Derby 2015). However, this recommendation is misguided.

In the midst of World War II, bread could be purchased for around $0.10, less than $1,000 for a brand new car, and a nice middle class house would sell for around $4,000 - $6,000. However, in our current day we all know these items, along with everything else, cost much more today than they did during the second world war, a substantially greater amount. This shows that we experienced a noteworthy amount of inflation since the war. Shortly thereafter, in the mid-to-late 1970s, inflation skyrocketed to double-digit levels, which threw America into hysteria. Ever since, the general publics anxiety dwindled along with inflation rates, but the same public is still timid when it comes in regard to inflation, even though we have recently experienced minimal levels over the past few years. Even though most everyone knows that prices go up over time, they still do not fully understand the forces behind inflation. Hopefully some of the uncertainties are clarified in the following paper. Inflation, along with purchasing power, is depicted and elucidated in terms with how the two are congruent to one another. Also, this paper notes how measurements are taken to predict future interest rates, which helps everyone from consumers to producers, so they can be prepared for the change in value of their dollar.

The last five years have shown that traditional monetary policies predicated on interest rate management by the Federal Reserve no longer deliver the economic growth they were once believed to. Keynesian economics has proved to not be as effective as once thought, which has led to the Federal Reserve choose alternative means to stimulate the economy and indirectly manage exchange rates (Hakkio, 1986). The uncertainty over interest rate polices has fortunately not led to increases in inflation, which has typically been the case in the past (Kopcke, 1988). The current economic conditions and the approaches the Federal Research are taking however are cause for concern, and from a personal standpoint many decisions are being evaluated more precisely.

It widely recognized that the monetary policy within a country should be primarily concerned with the pursuit of price stability. However, it is still not clear how this objective can be achieved most effectively. This debate remains unsettled, but an increasing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. (Dr E J van der Merwe, 2002) This topic of Inflation targeting is a subject which immediately conjures different perceptions from different people. Many feel that low inflation should be a main aim of monetary policy, while others (such as trade union activists) believe that a higher growth rate to stimulate jobs should be the main concern.

One of the most consistent defenses against deflation is for a central bank to target an inflation rate greater than zero. The Federal Reserve’s current inflation target is 2% and has informally been at that rate for quite some time. This nonzero target provides a cushion for policymakers: should inflation decrease due to an unexpected shock to aggregate demand, prices should not immediately start falling. This allows policymakers to act with easy money when inflation reaches 1 or 0%, thus avoiding deflation. Yet, during the last two recessions in the United States, the 2% inflation rate did not prevent significant fear of deflation. Extraordinary action was required, and many economists argue that the low interest rate policy following the 2001-2002 recession contributed to the housing bubble that was inflating at that time. It is not yet known what the impact will be from the unorthodox policies taken in response to deflation fears in 2009-2010. Based on these experiences, it may be time to consider alternative inflation targets to provide greater insulation from deflationary pressures.

Why is inflation bad for the American economy? Imagine going into the popular local food market or gas station several times a week. After a couple of weeks, imagine going into these stores and noticing the prices have steadily increased over the past few months. This is called inflation, and it is causing many problems in the United States. There are three different types of inflation: demand-pull, cost-push, and built-in. Demand-pull inflation occurs when prices increased because of such high demand. Cost-push inflation is when prices surge resulting from high input costs. Built-in inflation is when prices continue to rise after any natural causes. The inflation occurring in America is a demand-pull. Inflation has affected the United

Figure 3.5 illustrates the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment observed by New Zealand economist A. W. Phillips in Britain in the 1950s. A government attempting to decrease unemployment to a level below 4%, by an increase in government spending may tradeoff more inflation from 2% to 5% for less unemployment from 4% to 3%. Conversely, a government could cut government spending to tradeoff less inflation from 5%

Friedman was one of the great intellectuals of the 20th century because of his major influence on how a broad public understood the Depression, the Fed's stop-go monetary policy of the 1970s, flexible exchange rates, and the ability of market forces to advance individual welfare. Milton Friedman has made remarkable contribution to our understanding of the following issues in monetary theory; the impulse problem, inflation-unemployment trade-off, the stability of the private sector, the relevance of allocative detail for the analysis of aggregate behavior, the concept of monetary

A lot of literatures have already studied about the inflation and inflation prediction and in this paper literature review will be discussed from the theoretical aspect and empirical aspect. The researches of the inflation, which are studied, by a lot of scholars in the field of economics have been conducted for a long time especially during the 1970s and it is the heyday when people would like to pay more attention to research the inflation. The inflation has become a hot topic among the economic life and social life since 1987. However, no matter whether it is in the western economic field or in the Chinese economic field, people have different definitions on the inflation and so far there is no unified opinion and conclusion can be accepted generally by everyone. For example, Wyplosz and Burda (1997), Blanchard (2000), and Barro (1997) define that inflation is a sustained rising in the overall price level of products and services in an economy throughout the time period. By contrast, Zha and Zhong (2016) define that inflation is considerable as the mechanism to improve economic growth. In general, the common definition of the inflation is that the inflation is a continuous rising process in the aspect of price. In other words, the value of the currency decreases continually.

The relationship between inflation and unemployment is a topic, which has been debated by economists for decades. It is this debate that has made the opinions about it evolve. In this essay, the controversial topic will be discussed by viewing different economists’ opinions on that according to time sequencing.

Monetary policy effects the GDP inflation. “Between 1996 and 2000, real GDP in the United States expanded briskly and the price level rose only slowly. The economy experienced neither significant unemployment nor inflation. Some observes felt that the United States had entered a “new ear” in which business cycle was dead. But that wishful thinking came to an end in March 2001, when the economy entered its ninth recession since 1950. Since 1970, real GDP has declined in the United States in five periods: 1973-1975, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991 and

Disadvantages of inflation include high inflation rates that can cause hesitation and mistakes leading to less investment. It is discussed that countries with higher inflation, have lower rates of investment and economic growth. The higher the inflation the lower world-wide competitiveness. Another disadvantage is menu costs and the costs of changing price lists, stabile wage growth and declining incomes. Most importantly it can dcreas the real value of savings, which may affect older people who live on savings. However, it does depend on whether interest rates are higher than the inflation rate.

In the 70’s Friedman developed his theory of inflation on the correlation of inflation and unemployment on the basis of a critical analysis of the (Keynesian) Phillip’s curve. The key elements in the examination of the mutual links between the inflation process and the situation in the labor market are in his construct a natural rate of unemployment, (adaptive) expectations of inflation, as well as a