Measuring Test The Stationary Of Data Essay

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Chapter 4 Results

4.1 Test the stationary of data
In order to avoid spurious regression, we use ADF test to examine whether the individual economic variables in the model is stationary or not.
The original order ADF test was done on the growth of consumer price index (CPI). And the result shows that the P value is 0.031, which is smaller than 0.05, so we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that CPI growth i.e. Inflation has no unit root. Inflation is proved to be stationary.
Table 1: ADF test for inflation

Then test the stationary of output gap. I have done the same test with output gap. The result shows the P value of original order ADF test of output gap is 0.0408, which is still smaller than 0.05, so we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that the output sequence has no unit root, thus it is stationary.
Table 2: ADF test for output gap

Next, text the stationary of money supply growth. The results show that the p value of money supply growth ADF test is also equal to zero, which is same as that of output gap, so we reject null hypothesis and confirm that the data of money supply growth is stationary.
Table 3: ADF test for growth of money supply

Finally, test the last economic variables: cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit (as percentage of GDP). The results shows that the p value of first order stationary is equal to zero, so it can be inferred that the data has no unit root and is a stationary sequence.
Table
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