Monetary Policy Implications : Interest Rates

In comparison to US, Australia’s structural unemployment rate is higher (Statista, 2018) that gives some ground for Australia to lower the unemployment rate from the nation (Australian Government Budget, 2004-05). Before the Second World War, the unemployment rate of Australia was only around two percent. Due to increase in working age population in Australia, along with increase in employment, unemployment rate also increases. Rapid growth in economy, trained workers, educated and skilled workers, expansion of business in country will lead to lower the unemployment rate.

Australia’s economic status can be assessed using a range of economic indicators such as unemployment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rates and interest rates. The economy can affect Australian business’s greatly causing them to flow through the business cycle. The business cycle purpose is to describe the overall trends of the economy and can show growths of high or negative. The four stages in a business cycle are: expansion, this is when the economy has high demands; peak, this is the turning point of the expansions before the economy falls down. A contraction is when the demand for goods and services are low; and trough, is the opposite of a peak. To evaluate Australia’s current economic status factors such as unemployment

This report will show an overview of the current state of the Australian economy and its management by the Federal government through examining economic indicators such as economic growth (GDP), unemployment, inflation and trade.

An increase or decrease in the unemployment rate can have a multiple effects on the Australian economy, both beneficial as well detrimental to the economic conditions and the societal outlook.

this report is going to discuss the money market and how interest rates are determined, it will then look at the effects of lowering and raising interest rates and the limitations of these effects. the money market is a section of the financial market where short term loans and financial instruments are traded, for example these could be short term loans between banks with the debt maturing in less than a year.

World Socialist Web Site (2008) states that Australian Reserve Bank cut off interest rate by a full 1% on Oct.9, 2008, which has been the biggest single cut since 1992, in respond to the severe international financial condition and regional economic slow-down,. However, it does not mean that we can escape from the crisis. The risk in the current financial market is quite high, particularly the banking sector. Therefore, investment decision requires proper prudence.

The figure obviously had not return to pre-crisis level. Moreover, recent commodity prices had fallen significantly which will affect Australia’s short and long term economy.

This has been the result of inflationary pressures due to excessive consumer demand, and a world increase in oil prices, the RBA’s primary objective is to contain inflation at 2-3% whilst also achieving sustainable growth. The current increases in interest rates will result in lower aggregate demand as consumers have less disposable income. This results in reductions in inflationary expectations, and a decrease in the demand for imports. Furthermore higher rates of interest will encourage overseas investment into Australia, thus resulting in an increase in the demand for the Australian dollar. An increase in the demand for the AU$, and a decrease in its supply due to less import expenditure will result in an appreciation of the AU$ in forex markets. Overall this results in depressed economic activity and lower levels of growth. However the RBA has been able to increase interest rates in order to contain inflation while maintaining economic growth. This is because the global economy has continued to grow at record pace, with strong growth in the US and China, and the recovery of Japan and Europe. Consequently demand for Australian exports has remained high, thus creating opportunities for increased production and subsequent economic

Unemployment: As can be seen in Fig 3 below, the unemployment rate in Australia has recently dropped below 5.8%, which is the lowest it has been for over 20 months. This is despite the economy struggling over the previous 12 months due to a fall in investment in the mining industry. This has led to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reducing interest rates on two occasions in the past 12 months to encourage the non-mining sectors of the economy to fill this void and invest in resources, but some businesses are still reluctant to spend money. NAB economist Tapas Strickland said he expected strong jobs growth to continue into 2016, stating “ The forward indicators, such as jobs ads, suggest employment growth of 2% a year, and when you do the calculations, that implies 20,000 (jobs added) per month”. (Guardian, 2015).

Employment in Australia is on the rise with most people who are willing and able to work now having the opportunity to do so. Economists consider 5% unemployment which was the value in January recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Greater number of jobs created because of factors such as the mining boom and the recovery effect in Queensland because of the floods will further lower the unemployment rate. This will have the effect of consumers having more disposable income thus requiring an increase in long term interest rates.

While there are expectations of a yearly gain of nearly 2.3 million net new jobs, the unemployment rate is still very high i.e. around 6.5 percent. The lower-than-expected job growth is fueled by various factors including government hiring, weather, and Obamacare. Actually, similar to December, January had a lower-than expected increase in job opportunities since only 113,000 jobs were created. However, the rate of unemployment still reduced to 6.6 percent in this month despite of the growth in labor force. The current rate of unemployment is the lowest in U.S. since the 2008 recession because more people are leaving the labor force instead of finding jobs.

The nation's monetary policy is set up by the Federal Reserve in order to support the aims and objectives of better employment, stable prices and a suitable and logical long term interest rates. One of the main challenges that are faced by policy makers is the stress among the aims and objectives that can occur in the short term and the fact that information regarding the economy becomes delayed and can be inaccurate (Monetary).

OCR is the main tool that Reserve Bank uses to conduct the monetary policy. It is important because whenever the Bank makes a decision to change the interest rate (cost of borrowing money), it will greatly affect to spending and investment. As a result, changes of OCR will lead to either higher prices (inflation) or lower prices (deflation). The RBNZ discuss fully the OCR every six weeks based on its economic and financial figures. The Banks does so frequently since it wants to make sure that the inflation is stable and this helps the entire economy operate smoothly and sustainably.

The FOMC conveys monetary policy and there are seven voting members which include the president of the Federal Reserve Bank and the presidents of four other Reserve Banks.

In the past quarter the unemployment rate in South Australia has remained steady at 5.6% (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2009) but this figure is volatile and may increase next month. The youth unemployment rate, however, in South Australia remains at 21.9% with the Western and Northern suburbs having significantly higher