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Short-Term Deterrent To Homicide: Article Analysis

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In the article, Is Capital Punishment a Short-term Deterrent to Homicide, McFarland addresses the deterrent effect capital punishment has on homicides. The author explains that based on his study, homicide rates drop slightly for about two weeks, after an execution takes places, but then returns to normal after two weeks (McFarland, 1983). The threat of someone being executed after their conviction, does not carry the same weight as someone who actually gets executed (McFarland, 1983). Even though homicide rates do drop following an execution, the results are only marginally significant, and do not have a lastly effect (McFarland, 1983). Once a criminal realizes that the threat of being executed is minimal, then the idea that the most severe …show more content…

One example was of Gary Gilmore in January of 1977 in Utah. His execution was a major media event because it was the first one in over a decade. In the two weeks following Gilmore’s execution, each week’s homicide rates were significantly lower than what was predicted by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (McFarland, 1983). On a national scale, the model expected homicide rates to vary slightly around 390 in a week (McFarland, 1983). However, in the two weeks before the actual execution with constant media coverage, was about 370 (McFarland, 1983). On the actual execution day, the ARIMA model again expected homicide rates to be about 390, but were actually 350 (McFarland, 1983). The model expected the next two weeks to be about the same as the previously predicted weeks, but one week after, the rate was approximately 340, and in the second week rates were at 320 (McFarland, 1983). However, after the second week, homicide rates started climbing again. The third week after the execution, saw rates back up to where they had been before the execution (McFarland, 1983). The fourth week saw rates at 400, effectively cancelling out the effect from the execution. Over the next five years, six other executions showed similar, but less effective and less substantial results (McFarland, 1983). It is believed that …show more content…

The finding of the study suggested that people are less likely to commit homicides when they actually see someone being executed. (McFarland, 1983). If criminals do not see the actual punishment that one is sentenced to actually carried out, then the subsequent criminals will not take the threat as seriously (McFarland, 1983). However, once the image of someone being executed is no longer recent, it seems the threat of perceived punishment is forgotten. Once the event has passed, people will have forgotten it happened, and the status quo will go back to normal (McFarland,

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