Summary and Analysis of Zsidisin &Hartley’s (2012) Managing Commodity Price Risk
Summary As every organization and business in the market is exposed to price risks due to the commodity price volatility, it’s imperative for managers to predict those risks and make strategies to mitigate the damages brought by price volatility. This book not only shows us the importance of commodity price management, but also teaches organizations how to adapt and adjust themselves to commodity price volatility and provides approaches to decrease the exposure to risks for managers. Therefore, this book is a necessary one to manage commodity price risk for managers and organizations.
Why is the commodity price risk management so important for
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Then managers can use regression to forecast prices. With judgment and updating information, supply chain managers can make the final forecasts.
Any company by itself could not control the prices of its productions, so even great managers cannot influence the prices directly. However, understanding their productions’ price risk exposure and finding ways to manage the risk are pivotal to make appropriate commodity price volatility management strategy. Of course, modification for managing foreign exchange risk is important to supply chain mangers of international companies as well. Mainly, there are several strategies that are outlined to manage commodity price risk in this book.
In the process of managing price risk, the very first approach is to find substitute productions when price increases. Passing or sharing the risk with customers and suppliers is another way to alleviate those attacks for a company. The collaboration with supply chain partners becomes very important in this strategy. Considering the capability and necessity of buying materials in advance, a forward buying could be an alternative to manage the price risk for a company. But in this method, lacking financial or other resources to hold a large stock will restrict a company’s profitability. Under such a condition, this book recommends to use the hedging strategy. For the commodity with future contracts, hedging uses a financial instrument to reduce the risk.
Supply chain operations focus on demand planning, forecasting, and inventory management. Forecasts estimate customer demand for a particular product during a specific period of time based on historical data, external drivers such as upcoming sales and promotions, and any changes in trends or competition. Using
2) Minimize the cost associated with the foreign exchange risk management strategy, i.e. the management and hedging costs
With the development of multinational companies, financial risk has played an increasingly remarkable role in financial market. In order to overmaster interest risk, currency and price risks, multinational corporates tend to hedge their exposure to financial risk. In practice, Coca-Cola Company has charged its business for a period of one century and made it as one of the principal players in the beverage industry. Coca-Cola Company markets have 500 non-alcoholic beverage brands in more than 200 countries. The essay discuss the pros and cons of hedging and analysis the financial statement of Coca-Cola. Eventually, hedging is a reasonable secession in risk management for multinational companies.
Options strategies share a similar defect with forward sales. That is the weakness of getting the maximum profits that are available when the price goes up or indeed has the potential to rise. “By adjusting the exercise prices and ratios of puts and calls, American Barrick could determine the degree to which it chose to participate in gold price sales”. However, options contracts are usually not longer than 5 years and only contracts with maturities under 2 years have high liquidity. Thus, the time spread of it is far shorter than the 20 years of expected production currently in reserve. Taking these factors into consideration, we think options contracts are good for American Barrick to hedge risk in short-term period.
In order to ensure a reduction in the impact of rising crude oil prices on our company, we will take several actions to ensure that the impact of crude oil prices will not be more affected. First, we will raise the selling price by a small amount to compensate for the loss of government contracts. By raising the price to make up for the losses caused by the financial. Of course, this method has a certain risk, because if the increase is too large, the buyer may not buy from us here, so this can only micro-adjustment, can not improve too much. Second, we will need to control costs, starting from most places to ensure that can make up for financial shortfalls. Third, we will communicate with customers, such as we will take a range range of price fluctuations, and customers that will not exceed the range will not fall out, so that customers have a psychological bottom line. Thus ensuring that traffic will not lose. Fourth, we will be a large sum of money and bank loans, this is a last resort. Not to the last minute try not to use, although the reality may not be ideal. We can increase production in this way, and when prices fall, we can hedge, so that when prices rise, can produce more revenue to
Understanding the fact, that falling commodity prices and rising dollar cannot last indefinitely, and maybe even bottomed out for now, I see a lot of perspectives within these markets in one year period. Moreover, a lot of forecasters expect inflation to move toward two percent goal during this year, which will result in substantial rise in commodity prices. Although, it is a controversial issue according to the FED projections for the current and the next year, which have been lowered from previous numbers (Table#1).
To mitigate the risk of future commodity price changes it is recommended that Desert Valley adopt a hedging program by purchasing forward contracts. This would allow the company to
Oil prices affect most American's daily lives. Whether it is used to fuel your car, a plane, to heat your home, or even if it is just used inside products, like plastic that we use daily, oil plays a role in all of our lives. Last year, in 2015, an extreme decline in gas prices swept the United States. For example, oil prices have decreased to less than $30 a barrel which is the lowest it has ever been in 12 years. There are many factors that can contribute to this sudden decline in gas prices, but their are three that are the most relevant. These include, the recent advancements in other fuel sources, the changes in the leading oil suppliers of the world, and the simple economic concept of supply and demand. These three ideas are all important in contributing to the fall of gas prices.
BHP Billiton is the world’s top producers of major commodities. China, as BHP Billiton’s largest export market, demand strongly influences the BHP Billiton’s operation (Western Australian Iron Ore Industry Profile 2015). According to the annual report of BHP Billiton (2015), China brought about 36.6% revenue in the amount of total export revenue for BHP Billiton, among the largest product is Iron Ore, which was 66% in 2015. Meanwhile, the forecast of iron ore will continue to increase production. However, Chinese steel consumption may growth slow next few years (shows in figure 1) because the real estate industry decline (Mark 2015). Therefore, oversupply and weaker demand may create the fluctuations in commodity prices which related to commodity risk.
But, even though the possibility of winning exists, the company is exposed to a greater risk if it does not hedge. Moreover, the policy of the company is to ensure against the risk, not to speculate on the foreign exchange market.
Nestlé S.A. is a Swiss company and owns a prestigious position being the world’s leading nutrition, health and wellness group (Nestlé, 2016). According to its annual report (2015), this company is exposed to many risks caused by movements in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rate and market prices. The foreign exchange risk comes from transactions and translations of foreign operations in Swiss Francs (CHF). The interest rate risk faces the borrowings at fixed and variable rates. The market price risk comes from commodity price and equity price. The former risk arises from world commodity market for the supplies of coffee, cocoa beans, sugar and others. The later risk arises from the fluctuations of the prices of investments held. (Nestle annual reports, 2015). Thus, financial derivatives instruments are used by this multinational corporation in order to hedge these risks.
From its definition it can be noticed that hedging is a strategy employed by companies in an effort to safeguard their economic position and to prevent the company from the losses which are associated with the unforeseen risks. Companies can hedge against risks which are associated with losses by taking control of their future purchases. The commodity prices vary in different markets and are caused or influenced by different economic factors. Some commodities are very scarce and with the increased depletion subject to the global demand in different foreign markets, the prices are set to be hiked in response to the established demand which positions the companies that use those particular commodities to have cash flow problems.
Great Eastern Toys is a company in Hong Kong that exports a huge percent of its total sales to the North American and European markets and hence is exposed to currency risk. Previously, the company was occupied with expanding their business and the company 's management had never given much attention to currency risk until their recent meeting with their banker. The banker pointed out that the depreciation of the European currencies during the previous two years had resulted in a substantial loss of income. The company 's management was indeed convinced that they should begin to devote more time and manage their currency position. In this report, we are going to explore the different options for Great Eastern Toys to hedge
Unconventional sources of oil and gas are becoming important for the journey of energy security. Conventional oil and gas will be unable to meet the growing demand requirements in future so there is a need to look for alternative resources of energy. In a volatile oil price movement, unconventional resources are viewed as important and economically attractive for future continuous supply.
Similarly, the buyer can also hedge his position against rise in carbon credit prices. A high volume of trading in this market helps price discovery and liquidity, and in this way helps to keep down costs and set a clear price signal which helps businesses to plan investments.