Introduction
The global financial crisis has attracted considerable attention in recent literature. It is well known that the true origins of this financial crisis is that the over-borrowing of US households, especially to finance housing. It had serious affected the financial sector and the macro-economy. According to Shiller (2007), the main reason of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the worldwide economic and financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the housing bubble. He also believes that the preceding bubble created dynamics and the dynamics of the crisis were self-perpetuating, although in the opposite direction. From the literature, we can see that conventional housing economics research virtually ignores interactions with the
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They contain several interesting dimensions such as housing prices, housing investment and housing wealth. In order to state their importance, Iacoviello (2010) focus on seven interesting facts about housing.
1. Housing wealth
The housing wealth refers to the market value of all residential capital stock, no matter rented or owned. It is also an important component of national wealth. In most developed economies, housing wealth takes up almost half of household wealth. The figure below shows this phenomenal in the United States. The data selected from 1952 to 2008.
Figure 1: Housing wealth and Non-housing wealth in the US
2. Housing wealth & GDP
Compare housing wealth and GDP, we can see that housing wealth is larger than GDP. Housing wealth also fluctuates over time. Figure 2 illustrates the ratio of nominal housing wealth to nominal GDP in the US. From the figure, we can find that the ratio of housing wealth to GDP has averaged around 1.5 between 1952 and 2008. However, it has moved dramatically throughout this period. At the beginning of these periods, it was equal to 1.28; we can see the lowest value happen in 1962 and in 2005 it reaches the highest value of 2.26. It is at the peak of the recent housing boom. Figure 2: Ratio of Housing Wealth to GDP
3. Housing wealth &
The housing crisis of 2008 can trace its origins back to the stock market trends of the mid- to late 90 's. During a period of extended growth in the stock market, increased individual wealth among investors led to generalized increases in spending, including in the housing market. With more disposable income in the pockets of consumers, the demand for housing increased in the late 90 's. Due to the fact that homes are large projects and their construction takes a large amount of time, the supply of homes in the market is inelastic on the short term. Because of the fixed supply of homes, as per the law of supply, which
The housing crisis of the late 2000s rocked the economy and changed the landscape of the real estate business for years to come. Decades of people purchasing houses unfordable houses and properties with lenient loans policies led to a collective housing bubble. When the banking system faltered and the economy wilted, interest rates were raised, mortgages increased, and people lost their jobs amidst the chaos. This all culminated in tens of thousands of American losing their houses to foreclosures and short sales, as they could no longer afford the mortgage payments on their homes. The United States entered a recession and homeownership no longer appeared to be a feasible goal as many questioned whether the country could continue to support a middle-class. Former home owners became renters and in some cases homeless as the American Dream was delayed with no foreseeable return. While the future of the economy looked bleak, conditions gradually improved. American citizens regained their jobs, the United States government bailed out the banking industry, and regulations were put in place to deter such events as the mortgage crash from ever taking place again. The path to homeowner ship has been forever altered, as loans in general are now more difficult to acquire and can be accompanied by a substantial down payment.
The increasing homeownership rate in the United States is a worthwhile policy goal. The housing economy creates jobs for American citizens as well as brings down the competitive qualities to purchasing a home allowing more middleclass citizens to spend money on houses. In doing so this drives the overall economy up in the United States.
The amount of income spent on housing is an important component of the cost of living. The total costs of housing for homeowners might include mortgage payments, property taxes, and utility costs (water, heat, electricity). An economist selected a sample
The housing industry has been around for many years. It is an important industry and one that will always have a necessity to exist since it creates a product that is one of the essentials of human life, housing. Economics play an important role in the housing industry along with all other industries.
Housing is a big concern of every family because it is where the family established. Most of families are willing to spend most of their income to own a house. However, the housing markets are not always fair and reasonable for normal people. Rich people are buying more than 1 house, but a lot of hardworking wage-earning classes cannot even afford 1 small apartment. Since the real estates are the rigid demand and a good way to keep value, too much money flow into the real estate markets. Sometimes it makes the housing price too high for normal people to afford.
Macroeconomics is an excellent tool for the analysis of the housing industry as something like a capital good, as a home is considered to be, cannot easily be studied in a short-term platform. Real estate is a good that costs several times more than an average persons annual income, in the United States that number is typically 7 times as much, and in the United Kingdom that number is 14 times as much. Several factors of both supply and demand directly impact the housing market on a macroeconomic scale. (Business Economics, 1)
The crisis that stressed lots of economies and financial systems originated in US mortgage lending markets. First signals of possible problems came in early 2007, when the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation announced about its inability of purchasing high-risk mortgages, after what New Century Financial Corporation - a leading mortgage lender to riskier customers - filed for bankruptcy (John Marshall, 2009). In the research paper of 2009 he claims that source of the crisis emanated from the rise of house pricing, called housing bubble. “US house prices rose dramatically from 1998 until late 2005, more than doubling over this period, and far faster than average wages. Further support for the existence of a bubble came from the ratio of house prices to renting costs which rocketed upwards around 1999..” (John Marshall, 2009, p 10). Housing bubble was also fully analyzed by Dean Baker in his research “The housing Bubble and the financial crisis” in 2008. Dean noticed that, by the middle of 2007, house prices had peaked and began to head downward.
It seems hard to believe that over ten years have elapsed since the peak of the US housing market in the previous economic expansion. Residential construction as a percentage of real GDP reached a zenith of 6.2% in 2005 Q3. The ensuing contraction saw this share decline -60% to trough at 2.5% of GDP in 2010 Q3. The current economic expansion began in 2009 Q3, but the sheer magnitude of the collapse made it virtually impossible for any subsequent housing recovery to impart the same outsized contributions to headline GDP growth compared to the previous cycle. This has consequently played a significant role in restricting the ability of the economy to shift into a higher gear of growth during the current
Housing demand includes household growth, real incomes, real wealth, tax concessions to both owner-occupied and rental housing, concessions to first homebuyers, returns on alternative investments, cost and availability of finance for housing and the institutional structure affecting housing finance provision (Yates, 2008). The growth in the number of households and in real income results in the increased pressure on housing demand.
The housing market crash, which broke out in the United States in 2007, was caused by high risk subprime mortgages. The subprime mortgage crisis resulted in a sudden reduction in money and credit availability from banks and other lending institutions, which was referred to as a “credit crunch.” The “credit crunch” and its effect spread across the United States and further on to other countries across the world. The “credit crunch” caused a collapse in the housing markets, stock markets and major financial institutions across the globe.
According to Wikipedia a housing bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline. Four years into the housing bubble downturn, much of the country remains hopelessly confused about what happened, why it happened and who is to blame. In my research paper I will try and demonstrate what a housing bubble is, some of the reasons for the bubble, was it preventable, how it kept growing, how it burst and how it has affected our economy.
Housing prices in the United States rose steadily after the World War II. Although some research indicated that the financial crisis started in the US housing market, the main cause of the financial crisis between 2007 and 2009 was actually the combination of housing bubble and credit boom. The banks created so much loan that pushed the housing price to the peak. As the bank lend out a huge amount of money, the level of individual debt also rose along with the housing price. Since the debt rose faster than people’s income, people were unable to repay their loan and bank found themselves were in danger. As this showed a signal for people, people withdrew money from the banks they considered as “safe” before, and increased the “haircuts” on repos and difficulties experienced by commercial paper issuers. This caused the short term funding market in the shadow banking system appeared a
In this report, the question “How much of the changes in the median selling price of homes in a city can be explained by the changes in median income of that city?” is answered. Home ownership is an important aspect of one’s life stages, and home prices are determined by demand and supply. The demand curve is affected by the one’s income, such that as one’s income increases, one is more willing to pay a higher price for the same quantity of goods (Baye & Prince, 2014). However, there are many other factors that might affect the demand curve, e.g. no. of children, in the household, the perceived quality of education in the school district, or the number of job positions (filled or open) around the city. According to Burda
In relation to the increase in house’s price, the rise of financial agreements such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) encouraged investors to invest in the U.S housing market (Krugman, 2009). When housing price declined in the U.S, many financial institutions that borrowed and invested in subprime mortgage reported losses. In addition, the fall of housing price resulted in default and foreclosure and that began to exhaust consumer’s wealth and