The Impact of Surging Oil Prices

In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will

The “U.S. became the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas” in 2013 (Energy Infrastructure). “Capital spending in the infrastructure that moves and transforms oil and gas into everyday products … has increased by 60 percent between 2010 and 2013” (Energy Infrastructure). The rise to become the top producer has led to the decrease in “U.S. oil import dependence” and the “rise of U.S. product exports” (U.S. Oil Import Dependence). The increased exportation of oil and gas by the U.S. has allowed both of these products to become large moneymakers for the United States. Although we will probably never “completely eliminate our need” for oil, we can reduce our petroleum consumption and the damage we inflict on the environment (Reduce Oil Dependence Costs). By decreasing the “dependence on oil” in new vehicles, there has been a

Several oil-countries have been facing economic and political turbulence as a result of the crash in oil prices, and there is disagreement among OPEC as how to handle the situation. (Krauss) While this is happening, America’s oil production continues to rise, as it inches closer to becoming an energy superpower in production and consumption; and countries that depend on their oil exports face recession.

The consensus from the 1970s and 1980s was that there was an inverse relationship between oil prices and real economic activities. This belief later changed when the oil price crash of the mid-1980s failed to boost economic growth. Researchers then believed that increasing oil prices negatively affect the economy whereas falling oil prices have very little impact and by the 1990s this impact was assumed to be minimal (DePratto, de Resende and Maier 2009). More recently, researchers have found that increases in the oil prices adversely affect the economy whereas the impact of a decline in oil prices on GDP growth is only negligible (Jimenez-Rodriguez and Sanchez

Economically, the oil industry will only pull us down as a country. Professionals believe that even though oil prices are falling, the production will start slowing and the prices will skyrocket again. The typical consumer would see that the price of oil barrels has fallen from one hundred to eighty dollars in the past year, but the consumer will not see the impact it will have outside of gas prices. Back in 2005, sixty percent of U.S. oil was imported, and the effects of a drop in prices would have been observed in the countries that we imported from. Today, however, only thirty percent of our oil is imported. With such a high amount of domestic oil, the low prices impacts the American

The demand of gasoline has increased steadily over the last twenty years. In 1981 the U.S. averaged 6.5 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. By comparison, in 2004 the U.S. averaged 9.2 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. For most of this time period, gas prices stayed relatively the same. This is because the U.S. refineries increased their production to meet the demand and maintain the equilibrium price. Also during this same time period worldwide demand for crude oil increased 27%. Crude oil producers also increased their production to meet the demand keeping prices the same.

The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)

In a revealing article by George Perry (2001) the author discusses the economic impact that a disruption in the oil supplies would have on world oil prices. He states “Currently 28 percent of the world's crude oil comes from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) consisting of Arab Muslim nations, some of which are not part of the OPEC cartel. The governing regimes in all these countries are at some risk [due to the war on terrorism].” He goes on to state that in a worst case scenario the economic consequences of oil supply disruption would be “oil prices rise to $161 per barrel driving gasoline price to $4.84 per gallon. The increase in the nation's bill for products of crude oil rises by about 10 percent of GDP, which adds perhaps 15 percent to the inflation rate in the first year. And the recession is the steepest and deepest of the postwar period, with GDP declining nearly 5 percent the first year.”

Oil towns started dying when the restaurants and stores have no more customers, because there was no money. This could start a “domino effect” and cause an economic meltdown in states like Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota (Egan). This event was caused by the U.S.’s dependence on imported foreign oil, because when the U.S. imports more than half of the oil it uses on a daily basis, someone else has the control over the economy. Energy dependence is not a new problem but one that started in 1973 after the oil embargo. It was caused by the Arabian government cutting off the oil and gas supply as a protest against the U.S. support for the Israel in the war between Egypt and Syria (Myre). President Richard Nixon gave a speech claiming his plan called “Project Independence” could produce enough energy needed in America and stop importing oil and gas by 1980. Then in 1975, President Gerald Ford had a similar plan with a deadline of 1985, and this was the cycle that lasted eight presidents so far. The deadline has now been moved up to 2025, but now, the U.S. is in a hole more than ever before. In the 1970s, imports only accounted for about 30% of all oil consumed. In 2010, imports account for 60% to 70% of all oil consumed. This problem has accelerated almost to the point of no return (Gottesdiener).

The U.S. was supposed to be the world’s new swing oil producer, able to nimbly open and close the taps in response to market forces, thanks to its bounty of shale fields.” In the past a barrel of oil has been one hundred dollars, recently it has dropped to thirty dollars. Though some wells can be profitable at low prices it puts a serious strain on the oil industry as explained in this article.

The featured article “The End of Oil,” the author, Alex Kuhlman argues that oil production is decreasing due to the costs of production are rising because cheap and easily accessible oil is hard to find despite increased consumption.(Kuhlman, 2007). Kuhlman (2007) provides evidence both from oil demand and supply aspects to illustrate the imbalance which causes the end of oil.

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping. There are signs, however, that production is falling in the United States and some other oil-producing countries because of the drop in exploration investments. But the drop in production is not happening fast enough, especially with output from deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico and Canada continuing to build as new projects comes online. On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.

This report will consist of the causes and consequences of the changing price of WTI crude oil and recent trends in the global price of oil. It will also include the effects of the ever-changing price of oil on individuals, business firms, governments and the economy.

Being at the centre of global economic activities, the U.S. has had its own fair share of oil price shocks. However, it did not just accept or try to change or distort the market forces behind oil prices. Rather, it sought to influence them by making supreme the goal of energy independence. It also intensified diplomatic efforts and negotiations to this end.

Discuss how rising oil prices might affect the macroeconomic performance of an economy. (25 marks)