To what extent does the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Explain the Global Financial Crisis?

As Chapter 10 questions, if further evidence continues to surface that capital markets do not always behave in accordance with the efficient market hypothesis, then should we reject the research that has embraced the EMH as a fundamental assumption? In this regard we can return to earlier chapters of this book in which we emphasised that theories are abstractions of reality. Capital markets are made of individuals and as such it would not (or perhaps, should not) be surprising to find that the

Financial Assets: Robert Shiller, a Noble Prize winner in Economics, has the belief that our cultural and psychological thoughts influence our financial behavior. Shiller highlights the key factors of the irrational exuberance that exists in the financial market. In his book, Irrational Exuberance, he argues that investors often make irrational decisions. Throughout the book, he explains that there are twelve factors that impact the market behavior from 1995 to 2005 and that eventually led to a financial bubble. Some of these factors can be linked to the Black Thursday of 1929.

In Frontline’s The Meltdown, the causes of the stock market crash of 2008 came into discussion. The topics regarding Bear Stearns, the Lehman Brothers’ and their collapse, and the huge bailout made in results to the market crash. There were great points being made on the mistakes Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke did not view from their perspective, which in turns were the problems that made up the crash.

In late October of 1929, the U.S. stock market crashed, setting our nation into the Great Depression. In an attempt to reveal the true catalysts of the event, the book “Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash” examines popular beliefs of what really caused the economic tragedy. The nine questionable causes that are discussed in this book are that the stock market was too high in September of 1929 due to “excessive speculation” (Bierman 32), there was a downturn in business activity, the Hatry affair, the Federal Reserve Board’s actions, a message that there was a “war” against speculators, excessive buying on margin and of investment stocks, excessive leverage in terms of debt, a competitively priced utility market segment paired with a setback in the public utility market, and an overreaction by the stock market.

No, I think that the individuals that run the stock market are now fully aware of why the stock market crashed and

Lets go back to December 5th, 1996 when Greenspan said “Irrational exuberance and unduly escalating stock prices.” Those words alone triggered markets around the world to decline. The Japanese stock market took a 3.2% plunge and the German market fell 4%. When the stock market opened in the United States, the New York Stock Exchange went down 145 points in 30 minutes.

It is often said that perception outweighs reality and that is often the view of the stock market. News that a certain stock may be on the rise can set off a buying spree, while a tip that one may be on decline might entice people to sell. The fact that no one really knows what is going to happen one way or the other is inconsequential. John Kenneth Galbraith uses the concept of speculation as a major theme in his book The Great Crash 1929. Galbraith’s portrayal of the market before the crash focuses largely on massive speculation of overvalued stocks which were inevitably going to topple and take the wealth of the shareholders down with it. After all, the prices could not continue to go up forever. Widespread speculation was no doubt a

In How Markets Fail: the Logic of Economic Calamities, the author, John Cassidy, details the growth of the free market ideology. This ideology, he argues, has become an over idealized utopian notion of a self-regulating market has been expanded upon over decades to become common rhetoric that influenced policy. This driving theory became accepted into global, but specifically the American context, and led to the financial collapse of 2008 due to lax policies which encouraged risky behaviour in the belief the market would simply sort itself out, which in the end it did not. Cassidy argues that the self-regulating market in essence is a fallacy and the solution to prevent further market failures can only be obtained through a hybrid of free-market and government supervision. Cassidy effectively argues his point by detailing the historical development of the self market theory which provides a framework to later explain the market failure of 2008. Convincingly, he argues that there should be a focus on rational economics which have existed for decades but have been pushed aside in favour of the utopian self regulating market.

“The single greatest contributor to financial crises is the Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates in ways that distort the true price of capital.” (Kibbe, 2011) The distortion of numbers created a false sense of overinvesting when in actuality they are responding to false economic signals. Just like the Great Depression, the stock market was not the only thing that was effected, unemployment doubled and debt rose from 66% to 103%. The housing market also took a hit falling 30%.

Throughout the text of the book, you will read about different bubbles that occurred in history. Some of these bubbles have happened in the last ten years and some have happened in the last three hundred years. One of the most interesting bubbles that I read about was “The South Sea Bubble”. The South Sea Company in England was formed in 1711 to create confidence in the government’s ability to meet its debts and promises. This company took a government debt (IOU) for ten million pounds. In return, the government was given monopoly over all trade to the South Seas (Malkiel, Page 41). People thought there would be a lot of opportunity to make money during this time. In 1720, the entire national debt, which was thirty one million pounds, was capitalized. The stock rose from 130 pounds to 300 pounds when the bill was introduced to Parliament. After bill became the law, the South Sea Company sold a new issue of stock at 300 pounds. There were fights that broke out by investors who wanted to purchase this new stock price at a proposed installment offer.

The most prominent and possibly the most notable market crash is the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ which was a direct repercussion of the neo-liberal policies which were implemented at the time and for which many of today’s global economic problems has stem from. These policies predominately include the replacement of government functions and services with profit-seeking entities, or more commonly known as privatisation and most importantly the deregulation of the economic market (Beder, 2006). Due to the deregulation, financial institutions and other economic players were able to invest in more complex financial markets which were beyond their understanding and a result a market crash occurred and the detrimental effects were widespread. If regulation had been put in place to monitor investment activity then it has been argued that the Global Financial Crisis would not have occurred and the associated global economic problems we are experiencing today would not have eventuated (Dag Einar Thorsen, 2013). As neoliberal policies where implemented around the world casing the global financial crisis the world disparities in wealth and income increased as well as poverty, contradicting neoliberal theories that by increasing the wealth at the top everyone becomes better off.

The last decade has been a period of much economic reform for individuals, institutions and societies alike. With increasing rates of globalization, financial markets and foreign trade have been a direct beneficiary of the free market, thus resulting in an interlinked and a rather interdependent global economy. Despite this advantage, the opportunity for failure loomed as human error and ill-conceived economic regulations became more frequent in some of the world 's most sophisticated economies. This loophole in the global economy resulted in the greatest economic downfall of the modern era since the Great Depression of the 1930’s, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Foster (2010, p.54) defines the financial collapse as a “crisis that started in the US mortgage market when massive numbers of mortgage defaults threatened the ability of the United States and global financial institutions to service their debts. Their consequent inability to lend led to a recession in the United States and many other countries, and increased the likelihood of a meltdown of the global financial system”. Despite the rarity of financial crises, they are considered cyclical, mirroring the trends of a business cycle, thus are able to reoccur if wrong financial regulations are implemented and lack of control is exercised on economic activity. As many economists today examine the crisis, it is widely concluded that there were collective causes and effects, both immediate and longstanding, of the

At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, Mr. Lawrence G. McDonald wrote a book on the fall of Lehman Brothers, entitled "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense." This book is a risk manager 's guide to the right and wrong moves on Wall St., and explains why investors must stay ahead of policies coming out

Now that the two theories have been explained, let’s look at some historical examples from Malkiel that really paint the picture in chapter 2. The first speculative craze noted was over tulips in the seventeenth century in Holland. The tulips were brought from Turkey and the Dutch valued the beauty and rarity of the new flowers. Thus the prices for the flowers inflated. As the prices rose merchants would by stockpiles to sell to the public. The more expensive they got the more the public believed they were making smart investments. People would sell off the personal belongings to get their hands on the bulbs. The mania surrounding the bulbs created a bubble that would soon burst. The prices got so high some people decided to cash in and sell them to make a handsome profit. Soon others joined in causing a snowball effect and the prices tumbled. Eventually there was no demand and they were worthless. Many went

The efficient market, as one of the pillars of neoclassical finance, asserts that financial markets are efficient on information. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that there is no trading system based on currently available information that could be expected to generate excess risk-adjusted returns consistently as this information is already reflected in current prices. However, EMH has been the most controversial subject of research in the fields of financial economics during the last 40 years. “Behavioural finance, however, is now seriously challenging this premise by arguing that people are clearly not rational” (Ross, (2002)). Behavioral finance uses facts from psychology and other human sciences in order to