Types of Forecasting Methods

* Now, assume you have acquired some time series data that would enable you to make short, medium, and long term forecasts. Ascertain the quantitative technique that will provide you with the most accurate forecast. Provide a rationale for your responses

The model analyses quarter by quarter. As off now the budget and expected revenue is as follows:

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

a. Currently the organization expects that their forecast for labor requirements is essentially constant from the previous year. This means the forecast for next year will be taken as given.

We first predict the annual demand for the year 1972 based on trend for 4 months of 1972 based on corresponding months of 1971.

The first part of our analysis involved deriving an order policy from the forecasts provided in the sample problem. We solved this problem using simplifying assumptions and then relaxing some of

This will be a basic forecast created from pro-forma financial statements, using basic forecasting procedures.

The full report shows all the forecasting data for 2012 – 2016, it clearly estimate the financial trend of our company (attachment). For the data used in this model, some of them are current data, the other are historical or most recently or average number. It only depends on actually situation – for which method is much more realistic.

Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).

Mr. Fischer made relatively conservative forecasts based on largely reasonable assumptions of seasonality, investment needed for PPE and continuing levels of sales. Based on the data at Mr. Fischer had in June 1995 it is difficult to criticize his projections.

* As stated in the guidelines, we also assume that the mean of the demand is equal to the product of the mean of the forecasting error and the forecast itself, and the same for the standard deviation of demand;

3. Refer to the monthly sales forecasts given in the first Table. Assume that these amounts are realized and that the firm’s customers pay exactly as predicted.

We first predict the annual demand for the year 1972 based on trend for 4 months of 1972 based on corresponding months of 1971.

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

Calculations to estimate the following years 5 and 6 are done in the excel tab called ‘Estimation Years 5 and 6’. Taking into account that the predicted remaining