Why Demographic Trends Spell Trouble For China And Russia

I partially agree with Pangloss’s statement because we never know what the future holds for us and we can never predict our fate therefor what happens to you today (now) or what you have is the best you can get or have in your live. For example, considering

David Foot, a Canadian demographer puts forward some economic prediction in the aspect of demographics in his recent research. He states his opinion that which countries will success and which countries will be in trouble in the next 20 years are predictable, based on the number of old and young people they have. An adequate amount of young people who are ready to work is the key for economies growth. Lack of enough young people to work will result in underproduction, while too many of them will lead to youth unemployment and unrest. In the article “Is Canada Headed for Demographic Disaster,” the author Diane Francis makes some predictions based on demographics. Countries such as Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt are in danger since their birth

A form of predicting near future events based on available data, statistical analysis, and artificial intelligence.

The articles “Welcome To The Future” by Matthew Hutson and "What May Happen In The Next Hundred Years" by John Elfreth Watkins Jr, talks about what the future will be like. Our visions of the future say that we will have some very serious issues and advantages in the future. One major advantage is we will have limitless energy, the article states “In the future, we’ll rely on nuclear fusion, the reaction that happens inside stars” (Hutson 22). This shows how our visions say we will have some good things to come because, we will be able to drive cars, run factories, and run other buildings. One example of people guessing the future “Hot or cold air will come from spigots” (Watkins 24 ).

cars and a completely different world. This a completely different view of how the future

In this chapter he talks about the swine flu ‘epidemics’ of the late seventies and of 2009 serve as an example of how extrapolation can lead to improper predictions, particularly if you assume that things will keep proceeding as they have in the recent past. It notes that self-fulfilling and self-canceling prophecies complicate the process of determining the future, by altering which directions the given traits proceed and altering their progress. The efforts to change the progress of certain events, helping the good and thwarting the bad, mean that many traits change their course from their initial progress (as when the swine flu outbreaks were stopped shortly after starting). Self-fulfilling predictions can be caused by the sheer act of releasing the prediction. For example, when news about H1N1 flu is broadcast, more people go to doctors and more H1N1 is identified. Self-cancelling predictions can also occur. Navigation systems show where the least traffic is but simultaneously invalidate the route by sending all traffic there en masse. Chapter 7 deals with the dangers of extrapolation and overly simplistic assumptions, using misfiring flu-predictions as an example. Also discussed here are self-fulfilling and self-cancelling predictions. Often the very act of prediction can alter the way people behave (an observation that also John Adams makes with regard to risk - a form of prediction, of course -

The majority of people including myself would say it is impossible to predict the future. However, there may be one case in which a man accomplished what has been widely presumed as unimaginable. The masterpiece known to millions of Americans is one that teaches a valuable lesson; in fact it teaches more than just one. Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury was written originally as a short story known as “the fireman” and was published by Galaxy Science Fiction in 1950; he later expanded the story into a novel called Fahrenheit 451 and it was published in 1953. The book is still a classic today because of the shockingly realistic predictions to the future as well as the life lessons it has to offer; which are illustrated by his choice to include a

Peter Drucker, an American Businessman once said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it”.

Although history has a reputation for repeating itself, some people also believe you can’t predict the future. Many people believe you can’t predict the future. People look at it like, somebody can just one day say the world is going to end tomorrow and wake up dead the next morning. That doesn’t happen!

In this essay I will try to explain why visions of the future are so

The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t talks about how many different statistics are used in everyday life. The book dissects the ways that people try to predict the future by look at past patterns that occur and they try to infer about the future. The book talks about how the statistics that are used by people to infer about the what will occur in the future. The Signal and the Noise does this in a good way because it uses different statistics that many people enjoy or at least know can be useful with topics ranging from sports betting and poker hands to weather and the housing market. It uses these statistics to show how certain times people can predict the future by using statistics from the past but these predictions are not always correct. The book offers many different statistics to show how predictions usually are wrong but can be correct when looking at these statistics under a different light.

In 2017, the world population is at 7.5 billion people. China is the most populated country in whole world. It has “1.379 billion” (Google) people making it the largest populated country. China is also the most largest aging population making it have a high life expectancy and the high accelerating aging rate in the world (Zheng, 2012). China has advanced with technology and also with age. Only “three decades ago, only 5 percent of the populations was over 65; today, 123 million people, or 9 percent of the population, are over this age which a report released by the government states that China will be the world's’ most aged society in 2030” (Huang, 2013). Since, China is the most largest aging population this means that less people are dying and more are living. Since, more people are living this means that need of long-term care, health insurance, adjustment of policies and how to make everyone comfortable living. China is the only country that has an older population exceeding 100 million and annually increases at a rate of 3.2. A dependent territory of China is Hong kong that has “7.347 million people” (Google). Hong kong also has a fast growing aged population. Hong kong is also trying to adjust their long-term care system, pensions system and policies to accommodate everyone living situation.

The book ends with a conclusion emphasizing the importance of following the suggestions within the book when it comes to making predictions. It notes the need to think in terms of probabilities, not absolutes, to know the initial view of the probability of an event, and to be ready to have predictions turn out to be incorrect especially at first, until gather more data. The book then concludes with a huge notes section; most chapters have at least fifty references, with several have more than one hundred. The Signal and the Noise looks at an interesting and useful way to view the process of making predictions and determining how the future will proceed. It looks at Bayes theorem and how to apply them makes an interesting approach to viewing

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

From this point of view I will try to describe the way I see the future coming