Why Demographic Trends Spell Trouble For China And Russia
1299 Words6 Pages
Introduction All around us there are forecasts predicting the future. Whether it’s an article in Forbes entitled “Why Demographic Trends Spell Trouble For China And Russia – And Prosperity For US” predicting a prosperous economy for the United State and Canada in 2035 (Preston, 2015) or the CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg at the F8 2016 Conference unveiling his roadmap on what Facebook would look like in 10 years (Buxton, 2016). Both are examples of prediction that use different forecast techniques to predict a future outcome. The article from Forbes, predicts a possible future due to demographic trends, whereas, Mark Zuckerberg forecasts a preferably or probable future due to advancements in technology. However, there are number of different forecasting techniques that are used today in business, government, and military to predict future outcomes. This paper looks at the different techniques for forecasting the future and how some futurists use these different techniques for predicting future trends, technologies, and events.
Forecasting Methods First it must be noted, that no forecasting technique can be certain, however, they can come close to a possible, preferable, or probable future. Second, the further into the future the predictions the higher the uncertainty of the forecast (Gordon, 2009). The reason for greater uncertainty is the possible of a wild card or black swam event happening that would be a total surprise and have a major effect on the long term
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