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Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XVIII (2011), No. 2(555), pp. 75-88 Portfolio Risk Analysis using ARCH and GARCH Models in the Context of the Global Financial Crisis* Oana Mădălina PREDESCU Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies predescu_oana85@yahoo.com Stelian STANCU Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies stelian_stancu@yahoo.com Abstract. This paper examines both the benefits of choosing an internationally diversified portfolio and the evolution of the portfolio risk in the context of the current global financial crisis. The portfolio is comprised of three benchmark indexes from Romania, UK and USA. Study results show that on the background of a global economic climate eroded strongly by the effects of the current financial …show more content…

Rubinstein (2002) appreciated that Markowitz’s research represents the first mathematical formalization of the diversification concept of investments, Portfolio Risk Analysis using ARCH and GARCH Models in the Context of the Global Financial Crisis 77 emphasizing the fact that even though diversification reduces risk, it can not eliminate it completely. So, through diversification risk can be reduced without having any effects on the portfolio expected return. Thus, sub-perfectly correlated securities represent the “right candidates” to be included in a portfolio. Solnik (1974), among others, extended the initial CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and suggested that international diversification leads to better results than domestic diversification. However, financial integration leads to a significant correlation of security returns, the benefits of international diversification being greatly reduced (Aloui, 2010). Taking all these aspects into consideration, the present paper aims to analyze the evolution of the risk of an internationally diversified portfolio in the context of the current financial crisis. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents theoretical aspects related to the volatility measurement of financial time series using ARCH and GARCH models; in Section 3 we report the empirical results of our study and in Section 4 we provide a summary of our conclusions.

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