401955088265000146685088265000An after-crisis analysis of the effect of protracted low interest rate on Date24-10-2014
Course 4.1 Advanced Finance, Banking & Insurance
LecturerProf. Dr. D. Schoenmaker & Dr. P.J. Wierts
Management SummaryThe lowering of the interest rates by the ECB is meant to achieve and maintain the desired inflation rate of 2%. This is done to ensure price stability in the Eurozone. Then again, doing so affects financial institutions as well, first and foremost banks. Banks in general use these rates in deciding their lending rate, an important part of their business. Deutsche Bank is no exception in this respect as we conclude in this paper. Based on such monetary policy decision-making Deutsche Bank
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In these years the ECB lowered the interest rate. By focusing on these years only we try to isolate the effect of the low interest rate on Deutsche Bank, in order to prevent creating a rippling effect from the preceding financial crisis.
TheoryThe European Central Bank (ECB) has several instruments in order to affect the inflation in the Eurozone. The interest rates at which regional central banks can lend or deposit their money is one of these instruments (De Haan, Oosterloo, & Schoenmaker, 2012). According to De Haan et al. (2012), changes in the central bank’s interest rate may affect the supply of credit through at least four channels, of which the first three are part of the credit channel:
Bank lending channel
Balance sheet channel
Risk-taking channel
Exchange-rate channel
The structure of this report has been built upon the four channels mentioned above. In Accordance with these channels, we have set up hypotheses in order to test our theory-based expectations with the actual proceedings of the Deutsche Bank. Moreover, in order to get a clear view of the current situation and its implications for the future policies of the Deutsche bank and its business model, we analyzed the occurrence of a similar situation. We looked at the Japanese banking industry, which had to deal with low interest rates for more than a decade (Weistroffer, 2013).
Bank Lending ChannelCurrently, the European economy faces a problem of
In England, the party responsible for setting the short-term interest rate is called the Monetary Policy Committee, or MPC. The channels through which the interest rate that the MPC sets affect the economy and affect inflation, are often referred to as the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. In this essay, which summarizes the paper called “The transmission mechanism of monetary policy”, the Bank of England illustrates the transmission mechanisms that the MPC believes to be true. The paper “The transmission mechanism of monetary policy” is divided into two
The banking industry has undergone major upheaval in recent years, largely due to the lingering recessionary environment and increased regulatory environment. Many banks have failed in the face of such tough environmental conditions. These conditions
Intervention by the central bank is warranted to avoid welfare loss for the institution’s stakeholders since it may be that due to access to supervisory information, the authorities are in a better position to evaluate the financial position of a bank rather than the inter-bank market. The other situation in which the central bank may be the LOLR is when the stability of the entire financial system may be threatened following the failure of a solvent bank. This widespread financial instability may put to risk the ability of the financial system to carry out its primary functions.
Monetary policy, ‘The government’s policy relating to the money supply, bank interest rates, and borrowing’ (Collin: 130), is another tool available to the government to control inflation. Figure 4 shows, that by increasing the interest rate (r), from r1 to r2, the supply of money (ms) is reduced from Q1
Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, is facing its biggest crisis since the global financial meltdown in 2008. US regulators were
Although New Century Financial business risks involved a great portion of internal mistakes, external factors such as Federal Reserve’s monetary policy played a significant role in deterioration of business opportunities for the New Century Financial Corporation. The baseline interest rates were increased sharply in 2006 from 1.5 % to more than 5 %. Although such a hike in the interest rates had been forecasted and anticipated since2003, the New Century Financial did consider the flagship of tightening monetary policy. The increase in interest rate affected New Century Financial in the way that the company’s assets became riskier and more prone to financial distress. Increased exposure of New Century Financial Corporation’s assets to the risks
This chapter is about the background of 2007-2008 financial crisis. The 2007-2008 financial crisis has a huge impact on US banking system and how the banks operate and how they are regulated after the financial turmoil. This financial crisis started with difficulty of rolling over asset backed commercial papers in the summer of 2007 due to uncertainty on the liquidity of mortgage backed securities and questions about the soundness of banks and non-bank financial institutes when interest rate continued to go up at a faster pace since 2004. In March 2008 the second wave of liquidity loss occurred after US government decided to bailout Bear Stearns and some commercial banks, then other financial institutions took it as a warning of financial difficulty of their peers. In the meantime banks started hoarding cash and reserve instead of lending out to fellow banks and corporations. The third wave of credit crunch which eventually brought down US financial system and spread over the globe was Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy in August 2008. Many major commercial banks in US held structured products and commercial papers of Lehman Brother, as a result, they suffered a great loss as Lehman Brother went into insolvency. This panic of bank insolvency caused loss of liquidity in both commercial paper market and inter-bank market. Still banks were reluctant to turn to US government or Federal Reserve as this kind of action might indicate delicacy of
Barkley replied that its situation was strong and that it believes that were the other banks the ones that were quoting lower than effective interbank borrowing cost rates (Kregel 2012. p. 2-4).
Germany itself is not in direct control of its monetary policy, this is because they are a major constituent of the Eurozone. The European Central Bank, however, is situated in Frankfurt and is based upon the principles of the German Bundesbank. Due to the fact that Germany’s economy is highly important to the Eurozone and European Union, the governing council of the European central bank might work towards what’s good for Germany would be good for the rest of the EU. The European central bank made the decision to lower their key interest rate by 325 basis points, the largest cut ever in such a short period in Europe. In addition to this, the ECB temporarily provided additional liquidity to the banks with immediate liquidity needs, banks were granted access to essentially unlimited liquidity at the ECB’s
The recent financial crisis has a huge impact on systemic Important Financial Institutions; it’s distressing effect can be felt in almost every business area and process of a bank. A fairly large literature investigates the impact of financial crisis on large, complex and interconnected banks. The great recession did affect banks in different ways, depending on the funding capability of each bank. Kapan and Minoiu (2013) find that banks that were ex ante more dependent on market funding and had lower structural liquidity reduced supply of credit more than other banks during crisis. The ability of banks to generate interest income during the financial crisis was hampered because there was a vast reduction in bank lending to individuals and
It is stated in the article, “the annual rate of inflation fell to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.” (Ewing) Inflation is the continuous rise in prices of goods and services. For example, if a piece of candy costs a person $1 and the inflation rate goes up by 2%, it would now take that person $1.02 to buy that same piece of candy. The most cause of inflation is cost-push inflation and demand-pull inflation. Basically, demand-pull inflation can be summarized as too much money cashing too few goods. When demand is growing faster than what can be supplied, prices will increase. Cost-push inflation happens as a result of the price of producing goods and services rises (wages, taxes and resource costs). When companies’ resource costs go up, they need to increase prices on goods and services to make profit. Inflation also causes the value of money to decrease because it takes consumers more money to buy goods. In the Eurozone
In September 2008, thousands of financial sectors all over the world went bankrupt like dominoes after the failure of Lehman Brothers Bank, which is also known as the Financial Crisis of 2008, caused the severe recession of the economies around the world. In order to help the country out of crisis, the central banks in different countries had to take measures to stimulate the growth of economy. The goal of this essay is to introduce the measures that Bank of England have taken in 2008 of financial crisis and will discuss the macroeconomics consequences and effects. Three measures taken by Bank of England will be presented in first section and how macroeconomics outcomes influenced by policies and objectives will be discussed in the second section.
The measure taken to lower interest rates below zero, constitutes the negative interest rates policy (NIRP) which are been adopted with a price stability objective. In ensuring stability of prices Central Banks aim for low inflation rates. Despite, the aim for low inflation, the rates need to be significantly below but also close to 2 percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) influences inflation by effecting changes on the interest rates. Even so, despite the risk of conflating the nominal lower bound, not going below the zero percentage mark and with inflation remaining relatively low the real rates would then not fall further.
Markets reacted in textbook fashion to the announcement of the BoJ’s adoption of negative interest rates, but the jury is still undecided whether this policy approach achieves its intended goals. Some observers claim, for example, the ECB’s experiment with negative interest rates has been disappointing in terms of spurring bank lending, although, in fairness, deposit rates have only been below zero since last June. Bank lending in the Eurozone has essentially drifted sideways since last summer. Meanwhile, the BoJ hopes the yen will now weaken significantly, but this was not the case for the ECB. The effective trade-weighted exchange
Introduction With this assignment, we intend to analyze and compare the performance of two of the biggest European banks during the past 5 years: Santader and Deutshe Bank. We do this taking into account the difference in their activities (such as the impact on commercial banking activities vs traditional retail banking) as well as the markets in which they operate. In the first part of this paper, we will take a brief overview of both banks recent history and current situation, and then proceed to analyze the main differences between both banks balance sheets and income statements for the past 5 years. Finally, we present conclusions about the main differences between these banks, and about the recent performance trends of the two.