A Comparison Of Kosovo On The World Bank's 2011 Options Study Projections Of Generation Usage

1487 Words Jan 7th, 2016 6 Pages
A comparison of Kosovo’s reported actual generation for the period 2004-2014 compared to the World Bank’s 2011 Options Study projections of generation usage shows that the World Bank overestimated electricity usage for the period 2010-2014 by on average 14 percent annually. During the five-year period for which data is available, the spread between actual and projected generation increased in greater amounts in years three through five than in years one and two.
If the economy does not grow as anticipated, the demand for electricity will not be as great as projected. This could reduce the use of the New Kosovo Power Plant (or some other component of Kosovo’s electricity system), causing the price of electricity from the plant to rise as the high fixed costs of the project would be spread over fewer megawatts generated. A reduction in the capacity factor of the plant from the projected level of 75 percent used in this report to 60 percent, for example, would cause a substantial price increase to the one already projected in this report.
Going forward, the government of Kosovo would be well served by a reliable, publicly available electricity data model that measures consumption, demand and supply on a uniform basis over time.

RISK FACTOR NO. 2: The Cost of the Power Plant will produce stress on the banking and finance sector that will undermine the type, quality and magnitude of economic growth now occurring in Kosovo.
The power plant poses a number of risks to the macro…

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