Analysis Of Daniel Kahneman's 'The Surety Of Fools'

In this lifetime, we will make decisions that affect our careers, our families, and countless other important ingredients in our everyday lives. In making these decisions, there should be some measure of doubt, to keep reality in check. But certainty leads to confidence, and the overall ability to make decisions and form opinions. This is why one should be certain, but use doubt to rationalize decisions and opinions.

Kahneman’s systems of thought is largely built on the framework of Stanovich and West (2000; as cited in Kahneman, 2003). It describes two types of thought processes: system 1 (perception and intuition) and system 2 (reasoning).

Unlike linear thinking, non-linear thinking is never tied to a pattern based upon prior experiences; however, non-linear thinking strengthens are experience and expertise the sub consciousness or unconsciousness uses during the thin-slicing process. Non-linear thinking often relates to uncertainty and the ability to have multiple outcomes. The non-linear framework accepts uncertainty and complexity as natural elements. The characteristics of a non-linear system can be describes as interdependent and non-proportional (Gingrich, 1998, pp. 72-73).

To test just exactly how E.S.P. worked, he created an experiment with Zener cards, which had one of a total 5 pictures on each of them. Rhine would draw a card form the deck and ask the subject to guess what picture was on the card. Out of the many subjects tested, most guessed only about 20% of the cards correct, but one young man averaged about 50% correct. This young man, Adam Linzmayer, would even guess up to 9 cards in a row, which was almost a one in a million chance—he did it three times. Rhine became overly excited of his findings on his belief in E.S.P. and wanted to publish the results. But upon his replication of the experiment, Linzmayer’s success rate of guessing the drawn cards greatly decreased (Lehrer, para. 12-13). This decline effect could possible be due to regressive fallacy, which is the inability to account natural and unavoidable fluctuations in experiments. For example, things like stock market prices and chronic back pain unavoidably fluctuate between prosperous and well-feeling times to poor and pain-filled times. By setting aside the idea of natural and unavoidable fluctuations, one can ultimately fall into self-deception and into post hoc

Robert Thurman, a Tibetan Buddhist monk, and Karen Ho share their ideas on different topics in each of their passages. In Thurman’s passage titled “Wisdom” he writes about one’s self and how acquiring his form of wisdom means that they are selfless, or willing to change themselves for the better or when the time comes. In “Biographies of Hegemony”, Ho writes about the type of society that Wall Street has created and how they continue to keep the same type of people in their elite group. However different the passages are, when thought about together they are applied to one another. The “wisdom” that Thurman describes would change people in a competitive consumption-oriented society that is Wall Street due to the reasoning that their

While these two emotions appear to be opposites, they work in harmony with each other helping people achieve their goals. Doubt allows people to explore other options and other outcomes in their actions. Overconfidence blinds people from exploring other possibilities in their choices.. The State Employees Credit Union encourages people to have some doubt in making purchases. They encourage people to wait 30 days before making a large purchase for self enjoyment or leisure.

Nicholas Carr author of Google making us stupid? Begins his article with a scene from Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey to add comedic relief to the fact he proves in his article. Carr states that spending a lot of time on the Web reconfigures the human brain, causing us to think, read and process data differently, and ultimately Google plays a big role. Thought-out the article Carr uses sources from: researchers, acquaintances, history and professionals to prove this thesis.

Scraping By, by Seth Rockman offers an insight to the rarely recorded history of ‘the chronically impoverished, often unfree, and generally unequal Americans whose work made the United States arguably the most wealthy, free, and egalitarian society in the Western world”(3). In the book, Rockman showcases to his audience the flourishing booming port of Baltimore, Maryland and the complications of the men and woman, white and black, which worked on the early capitalist development. An absence of economic safety and impoverished state republic capitalist prospered on is what this diverse group of people had in common. He explains early republic capitalism as “a political economy that dictated who worked where, on that terms, and to whose benefit” not a “synonym for market exchange” (5). Rockman not only shed light to the view that capitalist economy utilized human labor as a tool for economic development nationally and of private wealth’s service, but he also justifies the argument that the opportunity to harness an assorted group of workers who were denied the liberty to rightfully claim their freedom without holds, was what capitalism was built on. He also touches on the people of unskilled labor who never gain prosperity or success economically and ultimately remained in manual labor. Rockman’s purpose is to shed light on the various kinds of exploited individuals and conditioning them in Capitalism’s systemic dependence in the history line of the United State’s political

We are apt to think we remember a situation better than we actually do, leading to suggestion and distorting the actual truth unintentionally. For this reason, judges on a court case do not rely solely on evidence from eyewitness testimony because even though one may appear to be telling the truth, what they are actually saying can be false. Going hand in hand with memory is confidence. A dose of confidence appears to make a person sound brighter on the topic at hand and even consents others with confidence that what they are saying is correct and trusting. However, Chabris and Simons warn us that confidence should not be the determiner of deciding who is more reliable. A person who displays more confidence in general over another person cannot be perceived as smarter, for this an illusion people quite often make when determining what side to be on. Another issue with this is the explanation The Invisible Gorilla gives of knowledge and how we generally think we know more than we actually do. We tend to initiate the effects of experiences from a cause not related at all, jumping to conclusions, and believing there are easier ways to make ourselves smarter by projecting potential. Our memory, confidence, and knowledge as well as cause and potential all deceive us on everyday occasions convincing us to believe far more than the truth on a regular

When humans make a decision, it often turns out to be “predictably irrational” (Ariely, 2009). They always deviate systematically from expected decision rather show an inclination towards a certain way of thinking. This consistency of behavioral or decision bias can be very helpful to identify consequences or outcomes in a different

One thing which stood out in the text involving both of their ideas was the fact that Tversky had once thought of Kahneman to not be entirely accurate on his ideas. He had questioned Tversky on the basis that peoples’ opinions are subjective; that they differ person to person. An example of this was the coin toss discussed in chapter three of the text. Relating to the coin toss example, the idea that many made assumptions based off of ideas that are insignificant was of great importance and lead to a rejection by both Kahneman and Tversky on the effectiveness of predicted outcomes. In the text, the author states, “Even the fairest coin, given the limitations of its memory and moral sense, cannot be as fair as the gambler expects it to be”. This involves the idea that even when one is certain of the reasoning behind their assumptions, it is logical to assume that everything will not fit the expected outcomes of the reasoner behind it, and their attempt at directly relating the two

According to Adler, a person creates her life as a projection of these limiting beliefs in a self-fulfilling prophecy. In my case, since I believed I was alone and on my own, I chose to operate in ways that affirmed my beliefs about the nature of reality. I did not believe the world would provide for me, so I asked little and expected little, which affirmed my previously held beliefs.

This distinctive book called, “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman, is one of very few exquisite readings I’ve completed so far. Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist in Princeton University, and due to his research, he won a Nobel Prize in 2002 in economics. In the beginning of his book, he speaks of our cognitive System 1 and System 2 ways of thinking. System 1 generates feelings, impressions, and memory. It is very instinctive, automatic, and is considered quick thinking. System 2 on the other hand, is alert during complex problem solving, while dealing with facts and knowledge, and is attentive while working with difficult calculations. For example, a problem such as 24 x 13, this takes more time and knowledge to figure out (System 2), rather then recognizing an emotion from face expressions (System 1). When System 1 is strained, your System 2 steps in to help you process through that specific instant. Now aside from the psychological portion of this book, Mr. Kahneman divulges about a consolidated economic analysis with elemental intuitions from the psychological perspective; such as, luck and skill, overconfidence, risks in the stock market, factors of success and the decision making process. This book is overall concluded with the understanding of behavioral economics, which is the social and cognitive components on economic decisions that are defined by individuals and have consequences that reflect from making those decisions and taking those risks.

The book starts by clarifying the two fundamental modes of thought: ‘system-1 (the fast thinking system) and ‘system-2’ (the slow thinking system). System-1 is fast, automatic, effortless, and intuitive. And it cannot be turned-off. While, system-2 is slow, effortful and lazy. But in all, system-2 is a very supportive system.

Assumptions are automatic opinion that come to mind. Many times we us our assumptions to make a decision on something or someone. When making assumption we sometimes overlook the facts and make an assumption based on what we think about that situation or person. We make assumption at times based on our experiences in life. Our assumptions also help to shape us into the individual we are today. Harris (2011) found that many individuals make daily decision based on assumptions. We operate in assumptions in many ways