Douglas Hibbs, in his work “The American Political Economy” also focused on income growth like Tufte. His works focus on voters as responding not only to income growth within the election year but also look at income growth from the last four years. Essentially voters will evaluate their current economic status or the status of the nation but won’t stop there like in Tufte model but also examines the overall state of the economy for the fast four years and (Hibbs). Most other research that examines income growth and the vote, typically use a model of the presidential vote which measures from the 2nd or 3rd quarter of the election year.
Income growth is not the only objective economic indicator, some researchers use the gross domestic product for voter prediction. According to Kristen Monroe voter prediction using GDP usually produce similar vote prediction estimate than model reliant on the income growth. Monroe believe that similarity of the prediction implies that economic indicator are inter connected. Due to the fact that an increase in GDP tend to trigger an increase in income, reduce unemployment rate and improve public opinion (Monroe)
Most of the academic research between the relationship of the economy and presidential elections categorize voters as either retrospective or prospective voter. Morris Fiorna, in his work “Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-Analysis” discusses about the retrospective economic voter hypothesis
We live in a culture where success is increasingly defined by a paycheck and is seemingly as important to the parent as the child. Raising children to be “successful” is increasingly becoming an obsession for upper-middle-class-parents, who encourage certain activities and scores to provide their child with the best chances of attending elite schools. The article focuses on the inherent advantage upper-middle-class parents provide but fails to mention those who the parent’s action affects: their children.
If you examine a vehicle, you may agree that it is greater than the sum its parts. Individually, the engine, battery, tires, steering wheel, and steel body can’t haul a teen to school or an associate to work like they can when they are all working together as a cohesive unit. Just like any vehicle, the common wealth of a community is greater than the needs of the individuals that make up the community. When the individuals of a community entangle themselves in a web of wants and selfish desires, they tend to loose sight of the well being of the people who surround them, the environment in which they thrive off of, and, in the long-run, themselves. In conjunction, author Scott Russell Sanders’ article titled “Defending Our Common Wealth” highlights these points as well as emphasizes creating a new vision of wealth, encouraging community over consumption and consumerism to his audience.
Chapter one of The American Political Tradition by Richard Hofstadter is centered on the Founding Fathers. The very beginning of the chapter says that the Constitutional Convention was trying to create a government that would pay debts and avoid currency inflation. The Democratic ideas that the Founding Fathers were so against appealed mostly to less privileged classes, and not at all to the higher classes. This chapter says that the Founding Fathers thought that if no constitutional balance were achieved, one specific class or would take over others. Three advantages of a good constitutional government were listed in this chapter as well. One: keep order against majority rule. Two: a representative government. Three: aristocracy and democracy
The Funnel of Causality model describes voting behaviour in terms of socio-demographics, party identification, issues, and candidates. In this essay I will focus on issues because they can be compared between countries. An issue is essentially a problem that is perceived to be important, and there is an actor with “ownership” of the issue, meaning that there is someone who is thought to be “the best man for the job” so to speak. The economy isn’t an issue because you can’t have “ownership” over the economy. Issues are important because they explain a lot about voting behaviour.
When George Washington was elected President in 1789 by members of the fledgling United States of America, he was setting into motion a tradition that has stood the test of over 225 years - the presidential election. Even as the United States has seen dozens of wars, made hundreds of scientific advances, and selected thousands of politicians to seats everywhere from small town councils to Congress, the principles of the election have remained the same; the people band together to determine who will best protect their interests at home and assure that the US will always remain on top in foreign policy. Oftentimes, this is found to be a difficult decision, as public opinion is constantly wavering. One sees this in action particularly during the 1992 election - a battle of wills between Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Ross Perot; complete with lead changes, major vote swings, and Perot’s unprecedented initial success - ultimately a false alarm to the bipartisan establishment.
In the last half of the twentieth century, voter turnout in federal elections has declined. During the same period, voter turnout has been higher in presidential elections than in midterm elections.
Secondly, I feel it is similarly important to this paper to address what the true definition and what I mean when I use the term, national election. Through this paper I use the term, national elections, which refers to the presidential and congressional elections in the United States. Also, by studying the percentage of voter turnout in every national election, we determine if voter turnout is declining by, “A country is considered to have declining turnout if its average percentage levels in the last three decades have decreased by more than 2% compared to those of the first three decades (Ferrini, 2012).” Given that the US does meet this criteria, lets get into analyzing these competing theories.
Politician and the author of the book Hardball: How Politics Is Played, Told by One Who Knows the Game Christopher Matthews is well renowned as a leading figure in explaining the inner workings of American politics. His book Hardball is a nonfiction he wrote about his experiences in politics and boiled down succeeding as a politician into fourteen maxims. He bases these maxims off of his own real experiences in politics and others’ who have both succeeded and failed. For you do well in the game of politics you should make sure to follow at least these two maxims: “All Politics is Local” and “Keep your Enemies in Front of You.” However, you must be aware that Matthew’s maxim “Press is the Enemy” isn’t necessarily true.
What factors are most accurate in predicting the outcome of a presidential election? In the book The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, the factors of choice and chance answer this question through analysis of the 2012 presidential election. The term choice refers to the factors that the candidate has no control over, such as what the media chooses to cover and what the campaign chooses to make stances on. Adversely, chance is what the candidate has no control over, such as the state of the economy and partisanship. Sides and Vavreck refer to chance factors as fundamentals. I will argue that the economy plays the greatest role in deciding presidential elections. Campaigns and media are secondary to the economy and underlying voter partisanship, due to their inconsequential effect on voters. I will argue that chance is more important than choice from the evidence provided in the The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, and Partisan Biases in Economic Accountability, by Larry Bartels. Political scientists evaluate and debate the role of choice versus the role of chance in predicting presidential elections. The economy and partisanship are superior at predicting presidential elections because the fleeting effects of media, the tug-of-war campaigns, strong voter partisanship, and myopic voters.
Elections in the past are very similar to elections in the modern world. Parenti even stated that “Elections were contested by candidates who were either wealthy themselves or were bankrolled by wealthy backers” (Parenti 52). Of course, in order to win these elections, candidates often used bribery. He continues by stating that in order for one to increase their chances of winning is by
Income inequality has been a rising problem in the United States for the past few decades. One of the main issues surrounding this years is election, especially for the Democratic candidates is income inequality and how to address it. Public opinion on income inequality and the government’s role in changing it can easily shape how the election turns out this year which can make great differences to the lives of American’s for years to come.
The government in the United States supposedly revolves around American ideals such as equality and diversity; however, this is simply not the case as perpetuated by class inequalities. The meaning of democracy has been skewed in the United States to represent something entirely different than it did in 1776. Today, American democracy behaves more like an aristocracy, where the upper class exercises power within the government and state, influencing discourse and therefore the laws and resources in our country, which are purportedly “for the people”. Democracy is presumed to provide everyone with equal political power, but the government in today’s America, although seemingly following this ideal model, does not. Instead, the elite upper class has a monopoly over the political influence and are the sole benefactors from public policies due to their influence over the policy making process. The upper class has an overall benefit from class inequality, as it greatly impacts American ‘democracy’ through the significant power gained through money and status, leadership roles that impact government, and the influence in the policymaking process that creates upper class advantages.
The American Political System The American political system is a federal system, which consists of
Political campaigns are very significant in American politics and elections. It is the period before the electorate makes political decisions in the form of elections. The attention of the citizens towards politics intensifies as the date of the elections draws near. The salience of voters improves as the election date draws near and could manifest in the form of increased media attention. Political discussions, campaign interest, strength of the intention to vote, and knowledge about the candidates are other manifestations of increased salience of voters. Another indication of improved intensity is the effort put by the candidates and their political parties in the campaigns. Parties increase their efforts in the
How much does your vote really count? As a voter, does your choice really matter? How much influence does the media have on your vote? How many choices does the media actually make when it comes to our nation's leadership? These are questions pondered by both political scientists and the average American citizen each year as the second Tuesday in November approaches. Though we know that the framers founded this nation on the principles of representing it's citizens, and on the ideals of a nation for the people and by the people; it is obvious that the people feel that their vote doesn't always count. In this paper I plan to expand on these questions and the justifications behind asking them, and I plan to follow up with a specific