Analysis Of Predictability And Efficiency Of Pt Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

beneficial attribute of the modern market is that it is not regulated. This allows for a system

Following Bolman and Deal’s organizational structure and human resource frames, the third frame could arguably be the most impacting on an organizations employee’s sight and reference regarding their organization’s culture. Symbolic framing views organizations as theaters (Bolman & Deal, 2008; 2015), where its employees are acting out their duties and responsibilities grounded in the organization’s myths, values, ceremonies and rituals (Bolman & Deal, 2008; Henderson, 2015). In this regard, organizations are often judged more on their performance in a theatrical sense, than the product outcomes themselves, as the performance creates alignment in its employees (Smith, 2012). In the structural frame, we understood that organizations obtain efficiency through proper alignment in departmental and communication lines, identifying excess in order to streamlining processes. The human resource frame encouraged us to conceptualize that organizations achieve success by focusing on who is in the right or wrong position and acknowledging the needs of the employees, certifying that both employee and organizational needs should be met to promote organizational success. The symbolic frame challenges us to view the organization from a different perspective, looking deeper into the organization’s culture as the answer for alignment and unity toward a common goal. Symbolic framing aims to capture the hearts and minds of all those involved in the organization, as symbols are often the

It is believed that Efficient Market Theory is based upon some fallacies and it does not provide strong grounds of whatever that it proposes. More importantly the Efficient Market theory is perceived to be too subjective in its definition and details and because of this it is close to impossible to accommodate this theory into a meaningful and explicit financial model that can actually assist investors in making the investment decisions (Andresso-O’Callaghan, B., 2007).

In 1914-15 during the western front (war world 1) runners were asked for and I volunteered for the job. I knew what was put up for the job I knew that being a runner was a very dangerous job but the skills I had for the job didn’t have me worried. Running from place to place was very tiring but knowing that I’m helping my people felt really good even though I deliver messages to people. But those messages are important and they give us answers to what’s happing and if we are in need for help or if they got it all under control. Delivering messages from the battle zone and from the general and giving me instructions to the bridge headquarters and not to stop for no one and to return back with the message.

Efficient capital market “It was generally believed that securities markets were extremely efficient in reflecting information about the stock market as a whole” (Fama 1970). To extent that when there is new information about stock rise, the news was dispersed immediately and it affects the security 's price at that time.

Last but not least important, an efficient capital market is one in which stock prices fully reflect all available information. However, the paradox is that since information is reflected in security prices quickly, knowing information when it is released does an investor little good. Furthermore, it is impossible to create a portfolio which would earn extraordinary risk adjusted return. As a consequence, all the technical and fundamental analysis are useless, no one can consistently outperform the market, and new

Efficient market hypothesis proposed by Fama (1965) suggested that all relevant information is immediately incorporated into current stock prices. Moreover, stock prices change when new information come. Since new information is unpredictable, EMH implies that stock prices follow a random walk.

The EMH is a theory developed by Eugene Fama. The main premise of the theory is that, at any moment, financial securities reflect all available information. The market implication for this belief is that it’s almost impossible to beat the market, based on information alone. In a paper titled, Stock Market Price Behavior, Fama asserts that security prices are an accurate reflection of all available information. He also labels markets that reflect all available information as efficient. In addition to the labeling of financial markets as efficient, Fama also puts forth different degrees of efficiency.

Proponents of market efficiency (or academics) would say that technical analysis is a waste of time and cannot result in abnormal profits. This is because in a weak form, semi-strong or strong form efficient market, share prices should have already reflected historical price and volume data, and no-one can earn an abnormal return from strategies based in this information. Thus, we could also say that technical analysts or chartists do not believe in any form of market efficiency.

Most of the investors try to select the securities which are mis-priced undervalued due to the reason that in future price of these securities will increase and they are able to outperform the market. The portfolio managers identify the securities which are able to outperform the market and they use variety of different techniques to predict the performance of the securities and stock. The financial analysis gives comparative advantage to the investors which results in substantial profits. The efficient market hypothesis argues that any technique is not capable to generate excess due to dependable predictability of stock and securities return. The efficient market hypothesis argues that it is very difficult to predict the future stock return and also the predictions are not consistent. The important and main force behind the price change is the arrival of new information. It is a presumption that market is efficient if the price of stock change averagely without any bias in response to the new information in the market without waiting for any other

Market efficiency tests include weak, semi-strong and strong three forms. They assume that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices of trading assets, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects. The weak form test is based on the past information and public available information for semi-strong while strong form covers not only the public but also the private information.

EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESISName: Mamunur Rahman Introduction Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a concept that was developed in 1960 's Ph.D. dissertation that was presented by Eugene Fama. The efficient market hypothesis states that, in a liquid market, the price of the securities reflects all the available information. The EMH exists in various degrees that include weak, semi-strong and strong, denoting the inclusion of non-public information in the market price. The theory contends that notion that it is possible to outperform the market. This is so because the market value contains all the available information and thus such attempts are chances and not skills. The weak EMH indicates that the market prices fully reflect all the

(α: how much on average the share price changed when the market index was unchanged; β: how much extra the share price moved for each 1 percent change in the market index.)

Academics noticed flaws with the efficient market theory paying attention to the volatile stock price abnormality. Despite these anomalies appearing minor in nature, it

There is a fierce debate on whether stock market is efficient all these years. Some people advocated Fama’s research in 1960s, and they believe that the Efficient Markets Hypothesis has been well established. However, others do not agree with. They found some evidence to prove market inefficient by empirical researches. This essay mainly focuses on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and there are six parts to discuss. Firstly, it will compare the random walk theory and the weak-form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis; Secondly, it will choose two empirical studies against the weak-form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis; Thirdly, it will assess the semi-strong form with the weak-form the Efficient Markets Hypothesis; Fourthly, it will evaluate the semi-strong form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis by two of empirical studies; Fifthly, it will identify the contrast between the strong form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with both weak form and semi-strong form; Last but not least, it will use one empirical study to judge the strong form.