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Aristotle 's Role Of Luck And Chance As Causes For Change

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When discussing probability, a text of my previous reading came to mind. Within the lecture Physics II, much of Aristotle’s work is concerned with providing a definition for various events and subjects, and as such, identifying the types of causes for each event is an important step in accomplishing this goal. Aristotle specifically investigates the role of luck and chance as causes of change. Although we commonly speak of luck or chance as being a cause, Aristotle purposefully refrains from including them in his explanation of causes. When giving an account of our observable world, I agree with Aristotle in that there is no place for luck and chance as causes of events, yet I believe they do have a role, namely in predicting future events.
Aristotle specifically separates causes into four different categories, material cause, formal cause, efficient cause, and final cause. He defines these causes as “that from which, as a <constituent> present in it, … the form i.e., the pattern, … the source of the primary principle of change, … something’s end” . Respectively, these describe what something is made of, the form or pattern to which is corresponds, the original source of change (closest to what we would associate with a “cause”), and the purpose of the change. Using the creation of a sculpture as an example, Aristotle provides the bronze of a statue as a material cause, the shape of the state as the formal cause, the actual sculpting of the statue as the efficient cause,

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