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Econometrics Project

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Personal Consumption Expenditures, Personal Income, and CPI
1980 – 2011

April 24, 2010

Abstract
The goal of this paper is to estimate the relationship between personal consumption and personal income among all Americans over the past 30 years. The data includes annual records for the four variables between the years 1980 and 2011. I have analyzed this data using the Ordinary Least Squares Method and ran a regression analysis in order to observe the relationship between my variables. In my model, I have used Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) as my independent variable, while the dependent variable is Real Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita. As well, I included two explanatory variables in my model which are the …show more content…

3. Empirical Model and Data
Using a multiple regression model, I estimated the relationship among my time-series data in order to learn more about my hypotheses. C = 0 + 1 *RDPI + 2*CPI + 3*CI C = -3.540 + 3.339(RDPI) +6.888(CPI) +2.315(CI) + ei Where: C= Personal Consumption Expenditures RDPI= Real Disposable Income: Per-Capita CPI= Consumer Price Index (Inflation) CI= Coincident Index Using Tinn-R, I came up with the following results. The Coefficients for this model are as follows: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -3.540e+03 3.383e+02 -10.466 3.49e-11 *** RDPI 3.339e-01 3.903e-02 8.555 2.68e-09 *** CPI 6.888e+00 3.061e+00 2.250 0.0325 * CI 2.315e+00 4.713e+00 0.491 0.6271 As can be observed through these results, the t-values for both RDPI and CPI are greater than |1.96|. Therefore, both of these variables are statistically significant and consequently have an effect on Personal Consumption Expenditures. However, the t-value for the coincident index is not statistically significant, which means that we cannot conclude that it affects consumption. It can be assumed through this regression model that as personal income increases by 1 unit, consumption increases by 3.339 units. As well, as PCE increases by one unit it can be assumed that PCE will increase by 6.888 units. Therefore, I can

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