Examine the Factors That Determine the Price of Oil in the Market. How and to What Extent Could Government Policies Affect Oil Prices?

The reason of the fall in oil prices are the constant change of demand. The need for the oil is actually stagnant. Crude oil is becoming a product of the past. Today, you can harvest energy from solar, wind, water, heat, and waves. According to The Economist, “The use of fossil fuels in the rich world is mostly falling. Emerging economies are not currently taking up the slack”.

I found current event article by Zumbrun discussing supply or demand of oil in which he attempts to answer collapse of past year oil price whether it was driven by supply or demand. According to Zumbrun (2015), oil demand started out as bad, but turned into the good for supply as concluded by IMF economists based on the World Economic Outlook.

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping. There are signs, however, that production is falling in the United States and some other oil-producing countries because of the drop in exploration investments. But the drop in production is not happening fast enough, especially with output from deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico and Canada continuing to build as new projects comes online. On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.

The demand of gasoline has increased steadily over the last twenty years. In 1981 the U.S. averaged 6.5 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. By comparison, in 2004 the U.S. averaged 9.2 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. For most of this time period, gas prices stayed relatively the same. This is because the U.S. refineries increased their production to meet the demand and maintain the equilibrium price. Also during this same time period worldwide demand for crude oil increased 27%. Crude oil producers also increased their production to meet the demand keeping prices the same.

As most of the world knows oil prices have been plunging downwards since June 2014, in which a barrel of oil has fallen more than 70 percent from that time, was $90- $100 a barrel, now $40 a barrel and approaching $30 a barrel. This fall basically came about due to rapid increase in global oil production which started to exceed its global demand therefore forcing prices down. “Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.” (Krauss, 2016).

In the year 2050, the whole world notice that oil was starting to become scarce. One thing all the countries saw was all the oil refineries were starting to go out of production which lead to high prices. Although

The demand for oil has been predicted to increase despite the high price of oil. Sources of the demand for oil continue to increase with time worldwide. As countries industrialize and develop, their oil consumption increases together with their economy. Examples of countries that have their economy growing fastest and steadily are India and China. These two countries have their economy growing and the impact their economic growth has on oil demand is great. Some developed countries are also about to change their habits on oil demand. This will be likely adapted faster if the prices of oil continue to rise. Oil prices are determined by the traders and speculators who control and manipulate the future oil market (Anderson, 1).

Another factor that has contributed to the upward pressure on prices is the increased concern on production levels of oil in the oil producing regions citing the Middle East and Africa (Yellen 3). The impact of the falling international oil production implies that oil supply may not match the world oil demand, which results in an upward pressure on oil prices.

Over the longer-term, some of the major trends that affect the price of oil are consumption for business and personal use. For example, Anderson and Boul (2005) note that China's economic growth has resulted in that nation having steadily increasing demand for oil. Much of this comes from growth of the country's consumer class, with automobile sales, and from growth in industrial uses for oil. India, the US, and the world's modern economies are all big users of oil, so the drivers of demand in these nations can have an impact on world markets for oil.

There are two primary factors influenced the market of energy: population and economic output (Exxon Mobil, www.exxonmobil.com). According to International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency, www.oilmarket.org) global oil product demand will rise up from 84.5 mb/d in 2006 to 86.1 mb/d in 2007, and in forecast for 2030 will grow 1.8% per year. The world oil prices are forecasted to decline from $68 per barrel in 2006 to $49 per barrel in 2014, then rise to $59 per barrel in 2030 ($95 per barrel on a nominal basis). Total world liquids consumption rises to 118 million barrels per day in 2030.

Oil-The article”OPEC #1”explains the oil prices.The Oil of the Middle East is the price of oil has fallen by nearly half in just six months.Anyone who buys oil or gas is happy because the prices are low.Car and truck drivers, airlines, and shipping companies are all happy because they don't have to spend as much money on gas. Oil companies are not very happy. They are losing money.A barrel of oil now costs $58 and last summer it was $107.Oil prices have gone down and people are happy,at least some of

When people think of oil, they think about the stuff you put in your car or what you use in food. Oil is so much more than that. Oil is fuel, gas and energy that we use and need in life. So we ask, why does the price of oil change so much and why does that price change affect the price of our food? Oil has such a large demand because we are dependent on it for so many things like transporting resources, running equipment, heating our houses, making our roads and many other things we use on an everyday basis (Westhoff).

In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will

The article indicated that demand of oil would fall by 2016 and non-OPEC oil prices has fallen from $114(AUS$161) a barrel last year to $56.53(AUS$80.17) a barrel this year (Ellyatt 2015). A decrease in price had leaded a short number of quantity demanded increase from 93.91mb/d 2014 to 95.46mb/d 2015 (generator 2015). This definitely will cause more demand for the people as the price falls but not huge percentage.

Another cause for the decline in oil prices is caused by an increase in consumers purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles, such as hybrid or electric vehicles. In many countries today, especially in North America, there has been an increased demand for fuel efficient vehicles. This is evident in TV commercials which are advertising more and more vehicles that get 40 to 50 miles per gallon, and by the ever increasing commercials for electric vehicles. Consumers are tired of paying outrageous prices for oil and are demanding more for their money. As this demand continues to grow, the demand for oil will decrease.