Graduation Speech : A New Year

Major stock market indices globally are trading near the high levels of 2007-2008. Some countries like India have surpassed the previous highs of 2008, and are trading comfortably higher (^BSE, Jan 2008: 20,000 approx.; May 2016: 25,000

In early 2016, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst two week start in history, experiencing what is known as a correction, which is defined as a decline of at least 10% from recent highs. The major factor behind the correction was fear over the Chinese economy. China worried the world economy when its stock market was performing very poorly. In the summer of 2015, it took weeks for world markets to react to China’s market crashing. However, on January 4, 2016, the world felt the effects of China’s crash almost immediately. News from the private index of Chinese manufacturing data

The upcoming presidential election in the US has been making the stock market very volatile. The investors are scared that, if Donald Trump becomes the next president, it will affect the business investments, which in result may put the economy in a recession. His policies for deporting 11 million immigrants, building a wall and starting wars with other countries are some of the few reasons as to why many economists believe that the US economy would shrink by 1 trillion dollars over five years; also, they believe that his policies will destroy 4 million US jobs. This unpredictability of who is going to win the election is making the investors very cautious. This is referred to as the “fear gauge” on the Wall Street. The S&P 500, which is the

With the recent election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States has also come with it changes in the stock market. One stock in particular that has benefited from this result is Caterpillar. Many of the plains outlined in Trumps campaign included improvements to infrastructure, less regulations on mining and energy production, and the wall that is said to be constructed along the U.S Mexico border. This has caused an increased interest in this company as its products or products similar to these products will be required in the construction of these projects. In anticipation for these projects investors have responded by purchasing Caterpillar stock. It appears as though investors believe that it is indeed a good time to own stock

The stock markets have had an enjoyable ride higher since the election. The S&P 500 stock market index has advanced over 10% since then. The stocks markets have recently reached all-time highs and it is understandable that investors want to be more aggressive. Most of this recent market advance is based upon the belief that the new administration will pursue policies which are favorable to corporate America.

The US Presidential elections are around the corner and the stock market has been stuck in a range for more than three months. There has been a long-standing interest among the market participants on the behavior of the stock market and the US Presidential elections.

(Graduates of Saint Joseph’s University class of 2020, I, Nicole Schall welcome you here today to this wonderful celebration. It is so nice to see all of your smiling faces together one last time. I would like to thank President Reed, the administration, and that crazy professor who almost who almost failed me freshman year for the opportunity to speak here today. The one who almost caused me not to be standing here today. First and foremost, graduates, congratulations on all of your achievements thus far. Parents, professors, friends and family you should be proud of each and every graduate sitting here on St. Mary’s lawn today. Give yourself a round of an applause. (round of applause sound effect) Can you believe it is already graduation? Time really does fly when you’re having fun am I right? I can only speak for myself, but I’m sure many will agree with me that freshman move-in day seems like yesterday. But truth be told you all have grown since freshman move-in day, not just in height, or from the freshman fifteen, you are all smarter, brighter, and ready to take on the world.)

Regardless of one’s politics, it must be acknowledged that there are great expectations for growth because of Trump’s proposed policies on regulation, corporate taxes and infrastructure spending. Arguably, this is confirmed by the equity markets, particularly the Dow, which has climbed almost straight up since Trump’s election.

Investors have seemingly maintained their appetite for risk-taking during 2017, but they appear not to be heeding the advice of investment strategists in terms of the likely sector beneficiaries of Trumponomics. This backdrop does not, however, imply that investors should be unaware of risks at this advanced stage of the economic expansion. US equities are not cheap when valued on an absolute basis, such as P/E multiples or price-to-sales. Meanwhile, the baseline outlook for Fed policy suggests 75 basis points being added to the federal funds target during 2018. The international backdrop for monetary policy is increasingly being characterised by the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) starting to engage in a game of catch up with the Fed, albeit gradually. This would, therefore, suggest a higher likelihood of choppier conditions for global equity markets next year.

II. Main Point (state as a single declarative sentence): The progress that I have made helped me lead up to writing well-developed essays. The main reason I believe my essays are improved because of the time I take on my pre-writing.

The key challenges facing equity investors are, therefore, to correctly forecast what will be passed by the new Administration and when. Currently, nobody has a clue, but equity investors have still priced in the full and undiluted implementation of the Trump agenda. Given the high levels of bullishness since the election, US equities are particularly vulnerable if policy implementation fails to meet expectations.

Risky assets have gotten off to their worst January start since 2000, but some of this year’s market commentary has arguably been the most bearish since the financial crisis. Is this really warranted? Equity markets are regarded as leading indicators of economic activity, although they are notorious for flashing misleading signals. Financial asset prices can, therefore, periodically be fallible. Global markets have reacted in a textbook fashion to two events, namely China’s devaluation and continued weakness in oil prices. What is far less clear is whether there has been an adverse tilt in global economic conditions justifying such bearish market sentiment. This is hugely important,

Throughout this year, we have seen a large bull run for most of the world’s markets. Stocks have continued to reach all-time highs; the S&P 500 has returned close to 13% year-to-date. Clearly, it’s been a good year so far for the markets and I think we can expect to see the overall market continue to increase in October and for the remainder of the year. By the end of the year I expect to see the S&P have a return of around 15% for the year; below I discuss major economic and market conditions that have lead me to believe this.

Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, investors have challenged conventional financial theories for its inability to realistically explain risk. Traditional strategies and asset pricing often rely on a normal bell curves to make market assumptions, but in reality, the markets do not behave this way. Under a normal distribution, a majority of asset variation falls within 3 standard deviations away from its mean which often understates risk and volatility. Unfortunately, the historical landscape of financial markets does not act normally, but rather exhibits fatter tails than a normal curve would predict. By definition, fat tails are a statistical phenomenon exhibiting large leptokurtosis, reflecting a greater likelihood for extreme events to occur. Since the magnitude of fat tails are so difficult to predict, left tail events can have devastating impacts on your returns and as a result, investors should sufficiently protect themselves from unexpected market events.

Starting 2016, we all believed that it was going to be a year of market stability and global growth, little did we know that although the market continued rallying, the global economy didn’t have enough change. The market continued delivering uncertainty, and what we thought was the Fed increasing rates, we witnessed a doubtful Fed with more questions than answers, lowering market’s probability of a Fed rate increase.