Hot Money
Abstract
Hot money is the money that flows regularly between financial markets in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences or anticipated exchange rate shifts. This capital flow helps developed countries to have internationally diversified portfolio and enables investors to earn a large profit in a short period of time. However, hot money can cause economic and financial repercussions on banks and countries, such as rapid monetary expansion, inflationary pressures and real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, various historical financial crises including Asian financial crisis are often related to this hot money issue. Currently, China and other emerging countries are suffering from negative macroeconomic
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The main characteristic of hot money is that money moves fluidly with the form of large quantities in a short period of time. It is exceedingly volatile, therefore undermines the stability of international financial markets by fluctuating the foreign exchange supply and demand. It destroys the balance of economy and increases the currency instability in the outflow rate countries. Furthermore, rapid inflow of money can cause the country suffer from rising inflation and overextended banking system. Economists argue that this rapid outflow can lead to financial crisis. Therefore, economists claimed that 1994 financial crisis in Mexico, 1995 England Bearing securities bankruptcy, 1997 global financial crisis in Southeast Asia are related to Hot money. However, some economists maintain that hot money can be utilized as development funds in the developing countries and it also can help stabilizing stock and foreign exchange markets when the market exchange rate is not in a normal state.
Estimate of current hot money flows
Because “hot money” make fast shifts after the short-term profit, it is hard to measure the exact amount. Also the flow is poorly monitored since the hot money suddenly increases and decreases according to the economic condition and sometimes they are not in a legal form. Nevertheless, there are approximated values. For example, Global Financial Integrity estimated the amount in their annual
For the last twenty eight years, China has been quickly growing into one of the largest economies in the world. China has accomplished this feat, in part, by radically changing their policies on trade and free market interactions with other countries. During this process, China has bought approximately one hundred trillion dollars of United States debt in the form of Treasury bills, notes, bonds, and Inflation Protected Securities (Amadeo). This debt has given China leverage against the United States which has enabled China to keep the value of the United States dollar high, while keeping the value of the Chinese yuan low. As the inflation of the dollar continues to negatively affect the
2008 financial crisis caused severe trauma on the world economy, although the economy of China grew moderately, China 's financial system is very fragile, the financial laws and regulations are deficient, the structure of foreign change reserve is very risky, because China has huge foreign exchange reserve of US dollar, which makes China also suffer from the financial crisis. Financial crisis is caused by the American subprime mortgage, to combat the financial crisis, the United States issued a substantial amount of U.S. dollars, which makes the U.S. dollar depreciate continuously, and this action makes many countries that have great amount of foreign exchange reserves in U.S. dollars suffer huge losses. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, in 2008, China’s foreign exchange reserves had reached $ 2 trillion, the continues devaluation of the U.S. dollar make China suffered a lot, thus the international capital system based on U.S. dollars has been questioned, China and other countries that also hold a huge amount of U.S. dollars started to build a new international capital structure. In 2011, China, Japan
The financial crisis of 2008 has been described as the worst financial crisis the world has seen since the great depression, but there are now murmurings of the potential for an even greater financial crisis, a currency crisis, caused by the demise of the US Dollar. The Dollar has been the reserve currency of the world since it took over from the Pound at the end of world war two, but we examine if it is about to crash spectacularly?
The internet has allowed the money market to operate 24 hours a day. It has been noted however that exchange rate volatility has increased,[v] which makes it more difficult for the government to set monetary policy.
The economic turmoil of 2008 is arguably the worst financial crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. Although financial crisis is not entirely new, each one is characterized by unique challenges that make it difficult to make a prediction on when and how the next financial crisis might occur. The financial crisis of 2008 to 2009 was marked by a failure in the efficiency of the financial markets, inability of regulatory bodies to regulate the financial product and was catalyzed by weak macroeconomic fundamentals prevailing at the time. In the aftermath of the turmoil financial crisis, there has been a debate in the financial community on whether there are specific indicators that precipitate a financial crisis and whether the global economy is at a risk of experiencing the a repeat of a financial crisis of a similar nature to the crisis of 2008. The
The U.S. dollar index has exhibited a clear long-term downward trend since 2002. This is a cause for concern among emerging markets because a large proportion of their foreign exchange reserves is held in dollar denominated assets. The dollar accounts for 62 percent of allocated foreign exchange reserves around the world and for 58 percent of the allocated reserves of emerging and developing economies . Most central banks would incur considerable losses on their investments if the depreciation of the dollar continues in the future. Even if the depreciation of the dollar does not impact the attractiveness of U.S. securities now, it poses a significant challenge to the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar as an international reserve and investment currency.
China had a GDP per capita level similar to Zambia, less than half of the Asian average and was lower than two-thirds of the African average at the outset of the reforms in 1978 (Eckart, 2016). China was poor. Since then, China has grown exponentially experiencing nearly 10% GDP grown per year until 2014 raising GDP from 155 current US Dollars in 1978 to 7,590 US Dollars in 2014 (Eckart, 2016). China, who accounts for 18% of the world’s population, was able to lift 800 million people out of poverty and growth in the middle class. This document will examine China’s financial and currency markets.
“The concept of the world money is organically linked to an understanding of the world market as the fundamental framework of global capitalism where profit rates are equalized and an average world market rate of profit is established” (Ivanova 51-52). The world market became the main focus of the world’s super-power countries as well as developing countries. As Karl Marx’s theory of money establishes, money is not only a measure of value or a medium of change, when it becomes world money, it becomes “the absolute social materialization of wealth as such (universal wealth)” (qtd. in Ivanova 51). One of the main characteristics of world money that applies to the US dollar today is that it is a dominant currency in international financial markets that is also used “hand-to-hand” in foreign countries (Auboin).
Other nations can also help with the aid of China’s New Year economy. The United States policies, through tax cuts and infrastructure spending, will help increase (proactive) fiscal stimulus and therefore benefit China in the long run. However, the financial situation is still at risk due to a sharp decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves. The stockpile decreased to $3.05 trillion which was a total loss of $69.1 billion. However, with a 6.7 percent growth over three-quarters, these problems seem to dwindle in concern.
According to the specialists, there are many reasons for this global financial crisis. We try to focus some prime reasons behind this
When understanding the balance of goods and services that are traded by a country, it is reliant in a negative manner on the imports needed to produce the products. Also, the flow of money in the international market is depending on interest rates from all nations and can be positively or negatively affected dependent on how high or low these rates are by nation. When investors are looking to increase their financial position, country’s offering higher
Then the crisis has spread to Asia especially in Japan, Korea, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Some experts believe that the problem was triggered by mark-up housing price in the United States. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) had less prudent to stabilize the financial system since many years. This situation is motivated by a hope to keep up the demand for residential properties and then banks in the United States distributed the housing loans to people who do not have adequate financial capacity such as, the people who do not have income, job and asset. Furthermore, these housing credit made into investments tool to attract the investors such as banks, securities firms and insurance. Unfortunately, there are a lot of unpaid loans in a large numbers. As a result, banks have difficulties to pay investors who need to withdraw money from banking products while prices are still high. It makes the market structure to be disturbed because the interrelated of investment product.
In 2008, the world experienced a tremendous financial crisis which is rooted from the U.S housing market. Moreover, it is considered by many economists as one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression in 1930s. After bringing a huge effect on the U.S economy, the financial crisis expanded to Europe and the rest of the world. It ruined economies, crumble financial corporations and impoverished individual lives. For example, the financial crisis has resulted in the collapse of massive financial institutions such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG. These collapses not only influenced own countries but also international scale. Hence, the intervention of governments by changing and expanding the monetary
Between the years of 2007 to 2008, the world was faced with a major financial meltdown with global market failures and economies in shambles. The emergence of subprime mortgages and the collapse of securitized derivatives led to much speculation of different causes. What was the root factor that led to the triggering of this financial crisis? This research conducts a comparative analysis of my research and beliefs on the cause of the crisis contrary to other researchers’ conclusions. It is an aim to provide my hypothesis on the leading factors and conduct an analysis from experts to test my hypothesis. Experts’ results were examined to reach the solution that factor such as securitization; easy money and other issues was the main known causes of the crisis. Although there is no specific root cause, I came to the conclusion that due to historical evidence, easy money was the cause of most financial crises.
The global financial crisis had a profound on the financial markets leading to recession in a majority of advanced economies and massive growth declines emerging and developing economies. A financial crisis occurs when disruption increases asymmetric information in the financial system affecting efficient channeling of funds (Mishkin & Eakins, 2012).