ITALY: Public debt will not drop despite low deficit
The country’s budget deficit is likely to decrease, while public debt is not
Italy’s public debt will not start decreasing this year, despite the good momentum of the domestic economy, due to the legacy of past governments, geopolitical factors and delays in implementing the public spending review. A recent Constitutional Court ruling [http://www.cortecostituzionale.it/actionSchedaPronuncia.do?anno=2015&numero=70] on the 2012 pension reform shows how risky a significant deviation from austerity policies could be. Compliance with the Maastricht criteria and avoiding the ‘excessive deficit’ procedure is good news. However, even with a 3% deficit, the debt will increase.
Impact
• The Court’s ruling shows how difficult might be for Italy to meet the European Commission’s debt and deficit goals.
• The government could use the ‘safeguard clauses’, eg, an increase in VAT and fuel taxes.
• However, this option is not politically viable and economically sensible if the deficit remains below the 3% limit.
• If in September 2014 ISTAT had not changed its GDP methodology, public debt would now stand above 135% of GDP.
What next
The high public debt poses a threat to financial stability and is the largest hurdle for the pro-growth measures of the Italian government to boost the economy more strongly. With debt at 132% of GDP and 270% of the individuals’ tax base, the key for the debt sustainability lies in the ECB ability to keep
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The Conservative Republican approach to fiscal policy reduced debt held by the public to 72 percent of GDP, $3,280 billion short of the sustainable level.
Imaging yourself accepting you’re first credit card and immediately you begin to frivolously spend all the money your bank offers you. However, come to find out, you didn’t realize there was a consequence to your spending and now you are eagerly trying to pay back the money you owe with interest. Now take that scenario and apply it to our government spending in the United States. The author of “Going for Broke,” Michael Tanner, explains in his book the current financial crisis America is subjecting themselves to in the long run. Governmental officials of various political parties are turning blind eyes to the ever-increasing concern of stability in the United States. More of our taxing paying dollars are being used to chip away at an increasing debt that our government has no intent on fixing. The goal of this paper is to address Tanner’s issues with the growing economic deficit of the American people and its complacent government. Some questions Tanner emphasis on are: what can of debt does America have, where is the taxpayers' dollar being spent on, and what will happen to our economy if nothing is fixed?
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We have a long story of debt, but it seems no one has been able to make it better. If the debt is increasing over time, the government has a budget deficit. Charles C. Turner, et al, defines the deficit as spending that exceed a revenue (482). In history, basic deficit or debt was usually from over spending from a war and economic issues like a recession or depression. Then the government had a budget deficit almost every year “between 1970 and 1997,” but the tax cut and more spending on defense by President Reagan in 1981 added more growth to the deficit. Also, another cause is from reducing of productivity seem in the GDP and lower tax rate (tax cut) (483). Even when the government had some budget surplus, still, it could not cover the debt. In 2012, the debt grew “over $ 16 trillion,” (482-483) and has increased more in recent year plus “2.9 percent” of the budget deficit in 2016 (The 2016 Long Term Budget Outlook, 2). To manage the economic depression, sometime policymakers cut the taxes and increase spending again by putting more money into the private sectors (Turner, 483); therefore, government goes further with the budget unbalancing. There are several reasons that lower the tax rate will not reduce the budget deficit closer to a balance.
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The public debt of Italy is growing exponentially, hitting 5.8 percent in 2009. Its unemployment was over 9 percent last year and is expected to top 10.5 percent this year. Italy continues to struggle with budget deficits and a high public debt, which is at 2.6 percent and 105.9 percent
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In Figure 1, the 5-YR CDS shows high bp starting from late-2009 to late-2012 and a gradually decreasing trend starting from the late-2013. In Figure 2, it is observed that there is steady and significant increase in the percentage debt of total GDP in Portugal since 2009 compared with others. Besides, there is a slowdown of the increasing trend in the last two years.