Case Study Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc

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Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. Future Sales Forecast Report

Prepared by: Karriem Pierre

November 20, 2011

Nova Southeastern University
Business Modeling, Fall Semester, Online Course
Professor Phillip S. Rokicki, Ph.D

Executive Summary

Ms. Quintana CEO of Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. was considering conducting business with Trans Continental stores to sell excess grapes from the 2008 harvest. Prior to making a decision Quintana must determine how much of the harvest should be retained for the production of Northern Napa’s own red table wine. Quintana realized that the quantity of red table wine produced is closely associated to the sales. Ms. Quintana …show more content…

This test was used in order to determine if there were too many or too few runs in a series of data. After conducting the runs test it produced a z-value of -5.9123, which indicates the amount of standard errors of the identified number of runs below the expected number of runs. The p-value indicates how extreme the z value is and with a p-value (0.0001) which is less than .05 or .1 the null hypothesis of randomness is rejected (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Runs Test for Randomness
|StatTools Report |
|Analysis: |Runs Test for Randomness |
|Performed By: |Karriem Pierre |
|Date: |Wednesday, November 16, 2011 |
|Updating: |Live/Unlinked |
| |Sales |
|Runs Test for Randomness |Data Set #1 |
|Observations |104 |
|Below Median |52 |
|Above Median |52 |
|Number of Runs |23 |
|Median |10933.00 |

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