TO: VEFA TARHAN, SPECIAL TOPICS IN FINANCE
FROM: MAHMUT MACIT, AHMET ARDA ATIK, CAN KORKMAZ
DATE: NOVEMBER 4, 2014
CASE: PIONEER PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Overview of the Company
Pioneer Petroleum Corporation established in 1924 and operating in oil refining, pipeline transportation, and industrial chemical fields. Company uses weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) as a discount rate to discount future cash flows that generate from possible projects. According to net present values of these possible projects management decides to invest or not. WACC represents the minimum rate of return from the investments to satisfy both debt-holders (bondholders) and shareholders. Since these investments are forward-looking, company should calculate
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We support that Pioneer should use CAPM instead of DDM for cost of capital calculations. The main reason behind that is the volatile growth rate of Pioneer Petroleum. According to the Exhibit 1, we found that the earnings per share of the company are highly volatile between 1980-90, which is directly affects the growth rate of dividends paid by the company. Since the operations of the firm is high sensitive to price changes in oil, it is hard to determine a stable growth rate for DDM. We support that CAPM will give more accurate WACC compare to both current calculation method (E/P) and DDM.
Table 1
%
E/P
CAPM
DDM*
Cost of Equity
10
14,68
14,28
Cost of Debt
7,9
7,9
7,9
WACC
9
11,29
11,09
* Po = $63, Dı = 2,695, g = 0,10
Firm Wide versus Divisional WACC
According to our calculations, we support that company should use CAPM to calculate cost of equity and it makes WACC %11,29 for firm-wide cost of capital. Also, we believe that this rate is not sufficient to make decisions for all possible projects and investments. Pioneer Petroleum makes investments in different sectors and industries and this brings different risks for each projects. Higher-risk projects requires a discount rate that is higher than the WACC and lower risk projects requires a discount rate that is lower than the current one. Therefore, company should not use firm-wide cost of capital for all investment
For the purpose of calculating the net present value of the project, an appropriate cost of capital has to be calculated at which free cash flows of the project should be discounted. Since the project will be solely financed by selling new shares, cost of equity will be used as the discount rate. Beta for the company can be assumed to be equal to average of the betas of the competitors of the company. This average beta value comes out to be 1.2. Risk free rate is 0.17% while risk premium has been estimated to be 6%. Thus by putting these values in CAPM formula, we can find the cost of equity for the company which is 7.39%.
General speaking, WACC is the rate that a company’s shareholders expect to be paid on average to finance its assets, and it is the overall required return on the firm as a whole. Therefore, company directors often use WACC to determine whether a financial decision is feasible or not. In this case, I will choose 9.38% as discount rate. The reason why I choose 9.38% as discount rate is because the estimated Debt/Equity is 26% under the assumptions by CFO Sheila Dowling, which is most close to 25% of Debt/Equity from the projected WACC schedule. There might be some flaws existing by using WACC as discount rate. As we know, the cost of debt would be raised significantly as the leverage increased. The investment will definitely increase the firm’s current debt. So, the cost of debt would not keep at 7.75%.
What is the correct capital structure and weighted average cost of capital for discounting the investment’s free cash flow?
The firm has decided to increase the debt finance component portion from 20% to 30% which is a good decision since the interest payments are 100% tax deductible. The appropriate capital structure would be to
We use Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) approach to calculate the cost of equity. The formula of CAPM is re = rf + β × (E[RMkt] – rf).
The questions that follow and the article Comparing the Accuracy and Explainability of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates will inform your completion of Milestone Three. An understanding of the models in this assignment will assist you in hypothesizing the incremental impact of a new investment project for the company. The understanding of these models will contribute to your ability to look toward the future when considering the direction of an organization. This activity is worth a total of 75 points. See the distribution of points listed before each question.
Our estimated cost of capital, 20.81%, is lower than Ricketts’ expected return, 30%-50%, thus the investment is worthy. However, it’s higher than other pessimistic members’ expected return, 10%-15%, making the decision more complex and requiring further valuation。
The cost of equity was found using CAPM, with the given market risk premium of 5%, a beta of .88, and risk-free rate of 4.03%. The beta was found by running a regression of Southwest’s percent change in stock price versus the S&P 500’s percent change in stock price for two years (June 28, 2000 to June 28, 2002). The risk-free rate was the return on a ten-year treasury note issued on June 28, 2002, according to the U.S. Treasury’s website. The tax rate of 39% was used to account for tax savings from leverage. In order to calculate the firm’s leverage, the market value of equity was found from the price per share on July 24, 2002 (Yahoo Finance) and the shares outstanding on the balance sheet of the July 10-Q report, as shown in Exhibit X. The debt value was approximated at the book value since data could not be found regarding its market value. This analysis resulted in a debt weight of 11.74% and equity weight of 88.26%. The final approximation for the weighted average cost of capital was 8.64%.
Given these approximations, the CAPM model would total the risk-free rate and the market risk premium times beta to arrive at a cost of equity of 9.68%, which reflects the investors’ expected return from investing in shares of the company.
The mixture of debt-equity mix is important so as to maximize the stock price of the Costco. However, it will be significant to consider the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as well so that it can evaluate the company targeted capital structure. Cost of capital (OC) may be used by the companies as for long term decision making, so industries that faced to take the important of Cost of capital seriously may not make the right choice by choosing the right project(Gitman’s, ).
At first, WACC and CAPM was attempted to be used as a source of cost of capital. However, for WACC, there is no available proportion of debt and cost of debt for MW. For CAPM, no available data seems to support the acceptable
Midland Energy Resources is a global energy company with operations in oil and gas exploration and production(E&P) providing a broad array of products and services to upstream oil and gas customers worldwide including refining and marketing (R&M), natural gas, and petrochemicals. Janet Mortensen, the senior vice president of project finance for Midland Energy Resources must determine the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the company as a whole and each of its divisions
Please refer to Appendix 2 for other considerations for cost of equity calculations. Most firms use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to determine the cost of equity. The components that make up the CAPM include: the risk free rate, the beta of the security, and the expected market return of the stock. These values are all based on forward-looking data. The model dictates that shareholders require a return equal to the return from a risk-free investment plus an equity risk premium for bearing extra risk. Refer to Appendix 1 for a full breakdown of the CAPM formula.
A key factor in determining a project's viability is its cost of capital [WACC]. The estimation of Boeing's WACC must be consistent with the overall valuation approach and the definition of cash flows to be discounted. Note that this process is a forward looking focus and is laden with uncertainty. It is how the assumptions are modeled that many costly mistakes can be made. While finding a rate of return for an individual project, it is important to remember that WACC is only appropriate for an individual project.
In DCF valuation (Chart 2), long-term growth rate is assumed to be 4%. Change in working capital is calculated as the average of 1997 and 1996 figure and is assumed to be constant for simplicity. Terminal value is valued at $69,398.1 million and NPV is $51,525 million. Stock price will be $37.07, indicating an exchange ratio at 0.46. This is a very conservative valuation as our DCF price is lower than Amoco’s current market price.