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Political Science 102 : The American Presidency

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Political Science 102: The American Presidency
Paper #1, Prompt 2: Economic Fundamentals and the Campaign
SSID: 24751175
GSI: Michael Dougal
Section: Friday, 12-1 PM
October 4, 2016

Introduction and General Argument
In a 1980 debate against Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan touched upon a core concern of the American electorate by asking one question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” (Healey and Lenz 2014). Political scientists have long debated what sways voters in presidential elections, and whether a candidate’s campaign and personality can transcend the economic fundamentals that face the nation. Although a slew of statistical studies and literature argue on both sides of this debate, a historical analysis demonstrates that economic fundamentals drive general election results. A range of studies show that the electorate responds to economic performance, although voters’ measures of economic well-being tend not to be simple summary figures like GDP growth over four years. The economy impacts the election in a more nuanced fashion. Firstly, voters tend to place a notable amount of weight upon the election year, with other periods playing less of a role in their decision making. Secondly, the metric used to evaluate economic prosperity should be a broad sweep of the voter’s perceptions, rather than a particular macroeconomic statistic. In order to match these theories with examples, we see historical incidences of incumbent parties with the odds

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