Predicting Preferences

Pascal’s Wager has been argued to be impractical because our beliefs are often not in our control. This argument is

When a state of probability remains undetermined, we often feel compelled to define it. We desire certainty, so we obtain it through whichever way we see fit, even when it is unattainable or harmful to do so. When we imagine

Some people are very accepting of other and some people are not. When I took the Understanding prejudice quiz I got the result saying I had a slight automatic preference for white people. The result did not shock me very much because I was raised in a house where we were taught to treat everyone equal. I was raised with a sister who is half African American. However, I know there are still things I do or say on occasion that can be considered prejudice. It surprised me how high the percentage of Strong automatic preference to white is. I was thinking in today's culture many more people would have grown to accept everyone equally. It is amazing to me that the top 73% all have some form degree of automatic preference towards white people. I

Every day of our lives, we make choices. Some of these choices are very difficult, while others might be so easy that they are subconscious. Each decision we make comes with a downfall. That is the next best option we could have chosen or what we call the opportunity cost of making the decision that we did!

Wealth has both benefits and dangers. Extreme wealth has the power to allow someone almost unlimited potential, however wealth can easily corrupt and change a person for the worse. Once someone has a taste of wealth they always want more. A prime example of this is the Wilsons, Myrtle and George. They both die because they truly believed money could buy them happiness. “[Tom] What do you want money for, all of a sudden?’ ‘[George] I’ve been here too long. I want to get away. My wife and I want to go west.’ ‘Your wife does!’ exclaimed Tom, startled. ‘[George]She’s been talking about it for ten years.’ He rested for a moment against the pump, shading his eyes. ‘And now she’s going whether she wants to or not. I’m going to get her away” (pg 131).

Randomness error: the tendency of individuals to believe that they can predict the outcome of random events.

Brandon R. is a 12 year old male diagnosed with Autism. He presents no fine or gross motor issues. He does show many delays and deficits in language and social skills. Brandon likes interacting with age appropriate peers and has many age appropriate likes and dislikes.

If two choices are given to a person, but one is lacking in explicit probability information, then the individual will tend to default to the choice with more explicit information about probability of each outcome. For instance, there are two boxes filled with black and white balls that a person can choose from and there is a possible monetary reward associated with drawing a ball of certain color from either bag. However, the person knows that one bag is half white balls and half black, while they don’t know the composition of the other bag. Whether the ball they needed to draw was black or white, people tended to choose the bag with equal amounts of each color balls. This has been dubbed the ambiguity effect, which basically means we have a preference for known probabilities over ambiguous ones.

Furthermore, there are three main aspects which were customarily associated with a science: metaphysical, theoretical and methodological assumptions. Under metaphysical it is believed that to gain scientific status requires the certainty that the subject matter i.e. human thought/ behaviour, is similar to that of other accepted sciences. This could then be true for Psychology, as particularly since Darwin’s suggestion of a continuity between behaviours of humans and other species, behaviour has become more scrutinised. However, this must be assumed in respect of determinism, suggesting predictions could be made. ‘Heisenbergs uncertainty principle’ suggests that when relating evidence of indeterminism within the universe to human behaviour, it proves ambiguous, and with parts of the discipline believing strongly in free will it seems difficult to establish a common ground (Valentine E.R. page 2).

A dog sits down in front of two identical dog treats, but when the treats equidistant to the dog, what higher value does one treat have over the other? Similarly portrayed in Buridan 's paradox, given the option to chose from two identical things, how can someone or something choose what is the better option. Any kind of choice or decision can only be made by using strategic skill. After staring at the treats, the dog decided to eat one treat and walk over to the other and ate it too. The dog practiced its own interpretation of strategic choice. A group of people can be given a block of clay and there would be no twinning pair because everyone has a different thought process; like how everyone has a different meaning of strategic choice. There can be one problem and yet anyone to approach it would create a different solution.

An objective theory that predicts future events can only be possible when dealing with the five senses. Once there is a pattern of the same things reoccurring over and over again, a universal law starts to develop. This means that no matter what, some things will always be true, while other things will always be false. One’s beliefs, whatever they may be, have no manner on the facts of the world. Some facts of the world include the sun rising, women being able to carry a baby, and even evolution. Another example is the Uncertainty Reduction Theory, which describes that when interacting with people, one may need certain information about the person in order to reduce their uncertainty. In the event that one does gain more information about the other person or

* Predict: Offering predictions (or hypotheses) about how a given condition or set of conditions will affect

For example, a wise human being will use their money in a way that will benefit them or make them happy. An ignorant person on the other hand will be wasteful and use their money poorly and thus ending up even worse than before. This example shows us that money, in and of itself, will not make us happy. But rather, money is a conditional good but only when it is in the hands of the wise person. This argument can be used in

In Rocking Horse Winner Lawrence brings up some questions about economics. In the story the little boys mother tells her son that they aren’t lucky because they don’t have any money. Even though the family has money they don't have enough for how they are choosing to live. To their family money matters. “Money is essential for living, but insufficient for striving”(Tatzel). This quote states that money indeed is important to survive but you don't need a lot, just enough to get you by. In the story the mom wants more. She is never happy with how much she has, because she doesn't have enough. In the story children hear the house speaking to them saying “there must be more money”(pg.1248). This is proving that there are economic questions a rising. The

* 2. the first glass of water has great utility for him. If he takes second glass of water after that, the utility willbe less than that of the first one. It is because the edge of his thirst has been blunted to a great extent. Ifhe drinks third glass of water, the utility of the third glass will be less than that of second and so on.The utility goes on diminishing with the consumption of every successive glass water till it drops down tozero. This is the point of satiety. It is the position of consumer’s equilibrium or maximum satisfaction. If theconsumer is forced further to take a glass of water, it leads to disutility causing total utility to decline. Themarginal utility will become negative. A rational consumer will stop taking water at the point at whichmarginal utility becomes negative even if the good is free. In short, the more we have of a thing, ceterisparibus, the less we want still more of that, or to be more precise.“In given span of time, the more of a specific product a consumer obtains, the less anxious he is to getmore units of that product” or we can say that as more units of a good are consumed, additional units willprovide less additional satisfaction than previous units. The following table and graph will make the law ofdiminishing marginal