Man3240 Exam 2 Study Guide

The belief-bias effect is when people make judgments based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic. For example, when a student takes a history test and answers short-answer questions based on their prior beliefs and general knowledge about the time period, rather than thinking about the course material’s relation to the test. To maximize people’s abilities to effectively reason or make decisions, students should be taught about the belief-bias effect, so that they make fewer errors when trying to answer questions.

He analysis conformation bias, hindsight bias, self-serving bias, and other types. When talking about conformation bias McRaney analysis that we have constructed our thoughts and opinions based on information we have accumulated based on our beliefs, while ignoring what the information against other opinions. A form of conformation bias that McRaney uses in page twenty-seven is: When you talk about a movie you haven’t seen in a long time and all of a sudden you are surrounded by information of said movie, you believe that fate is trying to tell you something. In reality conformation bias is occurring. You are have noticed more information about the movie because you have dismissed any other information. We seek out information that only enhances our beliefs and discriminates against the facts. Hindsight bias is relatable because we look at newfound information and speculate that we had already known it all along. Hindsight bias isn’t necessarily good because we have tendency to always wanting to be right, so after learning something new we edit our memories so we seem more factual than what we really are. McRaney states on page thirty-three that studies are the best way to demonstrate hindsight bias for researchers. Researchers can write a false statement in an article and we manufacture this information as our truth. Another form of bias McRaney talked about was self-serving bias. Self-serving bias

In terms of the anchoring bias, regularly revisit of the original decision based on the newly gathered data needs to be set up within the organization. Additionally, the decision maker should avoid the Confirmation Trap in which Bazerman and Moore (2009) argues that people tend to seek information that confirms their expectations and hypotheses. To recognize the bias, Mike Francis could

Hindsight bias- The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. (I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)

An answer may be found in the Dunning-Kruger effect: the curious phenomenon of “confident idiots” emboldened by their own ignorance, rather than cautioned by it.

Kinds of Biases, Assumptions, And Interpretations That May Affect The Seemingly Objective Observation Of Events

Confirmation bias is a tendency of people to prefer information that reinforces a thought or believe that they have. People demonstrate this bias when they retain information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotional issues and for deeply rooted beliefs. (Science Daily)

It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. I find myself currently using confirmation bias when I find information on airlines. I believe that Delta is the best airline. I disregard any negative information about them that I come across. Anytime I see an article, experience a good flight, or other positive information I use it to confirm that Delta is the best. I use my confirmation bias and only book flights with

Confirmation bias, which causes us to pay more attention and assign greater credence to ideas that support our current beliefs. That is we, cherry pick the evidence that supports a contention we already believe and ignore evidence that argues against it (para. 9).

Present bias is when something is offered to a person on that day that person is more willing to go for it if it were offered for more the next. Even if the

Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.

Anchoring and adjustment is a cognitive bias insidiously induced by the importance we give to the first information it perceive. From this systematic mistake, the information imprints itself and we unconsciously build upon it for future estimates, impressions, judgments of number, persons, decisions.

This is the tendency to change a previous judgment or decision in the direction of newly provided information. This is one of the most common errors in everyday human judgement and prediction. Legal scholars have noted that it is rare to expect people to predict the outcome of past events in real life. However, people in law are asked to make the type of judgment quite often. Since courts usually evaluate events after they have happened, judges are extremely vulnerable to hindsight bias. Researchers note that judges could not help but rely on information that was not available before a relevant event took place, but that later became available. The susceptibility to hindsight bias is troubling because judges are frequently expected to suppress their knowledge of some set of facts before making decisions. An example of this bias can be seen from exactly this. Judges are to ignore their knowledge of the outcome of a police search for purposes of determining whether the officers had probable cause to conduct said search. If the evidence found during the search was damning, this could prove to be incredibly difficult for the judge to write off when making their

Selective perception is an aspect that influence decision making corresponding to the hypothesis of Hastorf and Cantrill which states that out of all the occurrences going on in the environment, people will choose those that is important to them in their own egocentric perception. Specifically, in the study of escalation of commitment Biyalogorsky, Boulding, and Staelin established that one of the most influential drivers of intensification is biased belief updates. In the investigation, students received statistics regarding recent merchandise with the history of its marketed competitors, based on this information they had to decide whether the organization should invest 2.5 million to improve and relaunch the product. Additionally, in the second part of the experiment the students received new information that was negative about the net present value forecast for the investment. Notably, the result of the experiment reveals that the student did not update their beliefs concurring to the new information, and in the final analysis, their evaluation was influenced by their initial beliefs. Selective perceptive seem to have occurred (Steinkuhler et al. 2014).

Impact bias is described by people’s inclination to falsely predict the extremity and length of their feelings after an event. The mistakes of choosing one thing over another because of a predicted outcome can result in people making errors in what they think will make them happy. For instance, in a study carried out by Gilbert, students after taking photos, were asked to choose one and give it to the teacher, who told some students that their photo was permanent and others that they could exchange their prints. The students who had the option to switch ended up less happy than the students who had a definite decision. That being said, many people believe that having options will provide them with more opportunities and therefore make them happy, when in fact, “we’re happier with closure.” (Gertner,