preview

South America Executive Summary

Better Essays

Khoa Phan Anh Nguyen
Date: 10/31/2015
Memo
Executive summary
One of our clients is considering a potential investment in a particular South American Country (Country X). An investment is to be made only if the expected return is greater than the inherent risk. The market rewards an investor for willing to take risk, and thus it is important to understand the risks underlying. In the case of investing in the equity of Country X, the required return is the reward investor demand for exposure to:
Equity Risk: The risk of investing in the equity markets as opposed to investing in risk-free investment
Sovereign Risk: The risk the government of Country X defaults on its debt, which affect to Country X’ sovereign rating.
Currency Risk: The risk …show more content…

“For Society, education and social development softens the negative impacts of accelerated growth. The region as a whole experiences a remarkable improvement in its HDI ranking. For Technology, “Made in Latin America” become a symbol of quality and technology. The technology readiness index move quickly ahead in the region. For Economics, Latin America bridges the economic gap with advanced economies. Gross domestic product increases substantially. For Environment, Latin American natural resources and ecological advantage make it unique in the world. CO2 emissions per capita become the lowest in the planet. Finally for Politics, democratic government creates a great Latin American union with strong popular support. Corruption levels decrease to the level of advanced …show more content…

The Labors migrant to other places also lower the productivity as well as the investment and per capital income. Consequently, the external debt increase in order to run government, while the government hardly to collect tax due to detiertarated economy and so the default on its debt is more likely to happen. Country X’s sovereign rating has to be downgraded from BB and raise the sovereign spread. Therefore, in this situation, I assume SSX would increase from 5.75% to a range of +15% to 25%.
The inflation may increase, since the government may increase money supply to pay its debt. Also, the cost of good is raised by suppliers due to limited resources. Moreover, Government attempt to raise interest rate to attract foreign investment that certainly drives inflation to be higher. Therefore, CEX may be changed from 0% to range of 7% to 10%
Overall, the required return under “Disintegration is Hell” is a range of 34.25% to

Get Access