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Southwest Jet Fuel Hedge

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Case Assignment 1: Southwest Jet Fuel Hedge 1) The estimate of expected fuel consumption for year 2008 is 1511000000 gallons. We assume that the fuel consumption is uniform across months. Then the estimated fuel consumption for 2008Q1 will be 1511000000/4=377750000 gallons. Since we need to hedge 75% of the expected fuel consumption over 2008Q1, the amount of fuel we need to hedge over 2008Q1 will be 75%×377750000=283312500 gallons, 283312500/3=94437500 gallons each month. Because the crude oil futures contracts trade in units of 1000 U.S. barrels (42000 gallons), the total number of contract we need to enter will be 283312500 gallons/42000 gallons= 6745.5 We have three contracts (Feb.08, Mar.08, Apr.08) available. Our …show more content…

(4) The standard deviation of changes in jet fuel price is: 0.2554 The standard deviation of changes in April 08 futures prices is: 6.8109 The covariance of the above two is: 1.6704 So the correlation is: 1.6704/(6.8109×0.2554)= 0.9603, not 1. The correlation between jet fuel prices and oil futures is not 1, because the changes of jet fuel are not exactly the same with the changes of crude oil. After all, they are different products. Another reason is the jet fuel prices in the excel file is the spot price, while the price for oil futures is future price. The changes of spot price are not exactly the same with the changes of future price. (5) If the similar strategy is used for the next 6 months from June 30th, the P&L of the hedging strategy between June 30th and September 22nd can be calculated as follows. Aug.08 contract P&L: The P&L of the future is (127.95-140.00)/42= -0.2869$/gallon So the P&L of the total future is 94437500×(-0.2869)=-27094000$. The Jet fuel price that Southwest would implicitly pay is: 125920000×3.81+27094000=479755200+13787875= 506849200$ The actual price is 125920000×3.81=479755200$ The hedge is not beneficial. Sep.08 contract P&L: The P&L of the future is (114.98-140.58)/42= -0.6095$/gallon So the P&L of the total future is 94437500×(-0.6095)= -57560000$ The Jet fuel price that Southwest would implicitly pay is:

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