The Affordable Care Act ( Aca )

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Forecasting is an important tool to help healthcare managers prepare for the challenges associated with rising health care costs. As the healthcare landscape continues to change, managers look at the past and present to predict the future. The U.S. government is major provider of health insurance for the elderly and disable persons. The government’s portion for covering healthcare costs has risen steadily, from 43% in 1980 and 38% in 1970 (Miller & Washington, 2006 p. 40). Medicare is the single largest source of payment for beneficiary health care costs; it covers about half of the cost of health care (Healthcare Financing Administration, 2006). The Affordable Care Act (ACA), which also provides medical coverage to low income persons, must also be factored into the cause and effect analysis. As a result of the changing landscape of health insurance, healthcare managers rely of analytical forecasting to predict future healthcare costs, examine cause and effect relationships and prepare their organization to provide quality affordable care to their patients.
Forecasting is an attempt to predict the future with as little error as possible. There are three levels of reasoning that must be considered (1) Data and information about the past; (2) Known relationships among the variables; (3) Forecasting should be approached systematically and thoughtfully (Lewis, McGrath & Seidel, 2011, p. 83). Epidemiology produces rates that can be incorporated into various types of

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