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The Connection Between Weather And Voter Habit

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The connection between weather and voter habit has become a well-established theme among media outlets, political figures, and academics. However, until Brad T. Gomez, Thomas G. Hansford, and George A. Krause’s study, there was not substantial research to neither endorse nor refute this embraced the concept. In “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections” the authors sought to answer a two part research question. The first part of this question asks: Is voter participation affected by precipitation (be it in the form of rain or snow)? The second half addresses the influence weather has on a voter’s ballot selection. In their study the dependent variable is voter turnout and selection, which they choose to measure at a county level; the independent variable is the amount of rain or snow on Election Day.
The causal theory maintains if there is a change in meteorological conditions from the average, then voter turnout will increase or decline accordingly and the selection an individual will cast on the ballot. The hypothesis, therefore, asserts that as the precipitation is greater than the average rain or snowfall in a certain county, then voter turnout will decrease; this decrease in turnout benefits the Republican Party, and they tend to rise in the popular vote. The study finds that their hypothesis and the country’s maxim are true; stating the relationship is not only “statistically significant, but sometimes
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