The supply of general gross debt for advanced economies increased significantly over the past years compared to that of emerging economies, especially after the onset of the financial crisis as illustrated in the graph below:
The above general advanced economies debt supply has been absorbed by demand from both foreign and domestic investors, however, the demand composition of these investors has changed significantly for some countries compared to others since the onset of the financial crisis as evident in the graph below:
Indeed, notably the foreign demand has declined significantly during the euro sovereign crisis for higher spread euro sovereigns (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, or so called “GIIPS”) as well as for other
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(2009)) However, looking deeper, an increase, in particular, in the share of domestic banks in the investor base may threaten domestic financial stability and increase the sovereign-bank nexus, increasing borrowing costs and even in extreme cases leading to self-fulfilling debt crisis. (Adler, (2012); Acharya et. al. (2013))
Refinancing Risk
Some studies show that a rising share of foreign investors in the investor base increases governments’ refinancing risk. In particular, foreign non-bank investors can be less stable source of funding for sovereigns because they can invest in broader pool of assets, thus can easily stop rolling over or can sell the debt in cases of sovereign shocks. (Arslanalp and Tsuda (2012)) Additionally, some advanced economies might be hit by sudden stops in foreign funding also as a result of global risk aversion shift. (Calvo and Talvi (2005))
Do foreign investors matter?
Indeed, the composition of the investor base matters, in particular a decline in foreign demand matters for both borrowing costs and refinancing risk. However, the interesting observation is that such foreign investor demand decline has had significant implications for some countries such as the high spread euro countries (GIIPS) while very little effect for other countries such as Switzerland, Australia, and US. This leads to the conclusion that some advanced economies (e.g. high spread euro economies) are more vulnerable to changes in the sovereign debt share by foreign
U.S. National Debt The U.S. national debt has reached an alarming proportion. As it steadily increases, it's effect may not be felt now, but it will be in the future. Paul Gregory and Roy ruffin, in their book entitled Economics, linked deficits with inflation in the long run (251). Demand-side inflation of this type fails to increase the GDP, but instead just increases prices.
Operating in an international economy is a must for every nation. However in order to keep an economy out of long term debt the foreign sector need to be as balanced as possible. As shown in the circular flow model (figure 2) too many imports can lead to major leakages in our economy causing foreign debt to rise. To slow rising foreign debt the causes need to be considered:
This paper sought to answer the question whether Federal Debt is Harmful to the United States Economy. The paper examines and assesses the possible effect of high levels of debt on the United States in the context of the recent financial crisis. The analyses provides significant insights on understanding the adverse impact of national debt dynamics on medium and long term economic growth, with a special focus on the United States. This paper adopted a general theoretical model enhanced with a debt variable to address the possible issues of bias. A fixed effect panel regression was used to control factors of time and country-specific elements. Concerns of possible effect of low economic growth on increased levels of debt were addressed using
Is that make loans or buy bonds with long maturities are relatively more exposed to credit risk. Foreign exchange risk, is the risk that exchange rate changes can affect the value of an FI’s assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies. FIs can reduce risk through domestic-foreign activity. Liquidity risk, is the risk that a sudden and unexpected increase in liability withdrawals may require an FI to liquidate assets in a very short period of time and at low prices. Can be day-to-day withdrawals by liability holders are generally predictable. And are usually large withdrawals by liability holders can create liquidity
The current economic event on the increase in the National government debt has become of interest to the public and the decision makers. This paper looks at the economic event as per Stephen Dinan’s article in The Washington Times dated on June 16, 2015, in regards to the impact of the increasing national debt to the general economic growth in America. The proportion of the United States ' National debt is increasing in comparison to the National GDP. It is evident from the past years that the United States ' Treasury has been borrowing a lot of funds from its citizens and foreign investors to help fund wars promote the economic development of the country, and save the financial systems as well. This paper will explain and demonstrate an in-depth economic analysis of the USA National debt vital to cope up with this worrying trend in the economy.
Australia’s net foreign debt to GDP ratio has grown dramatically during the period of globalisation. After rapid growth in the 1980s’ foreign debt stabilised at roughly 35% of GDP, this was party due to a higher level in asset sales being used to fund the CAD instead of increased debt. Debt began to increase again the late 1990’s, this was due to a decrease in the value of the Australian dollar, because most of our debt had been borrowed in foreign currency’s, the depreciation increased the Australian dollar value of our foreign debt. The slower rate of growth in debt and overall liabilities in the past few years reflect the lower level of current account deficits. The growth in net foreign debt has eased slightly since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 but is now around 50% of GDP.
The United States has been in debt since 1775, paying for the American Revolutionary War. Through many years, tremendous debt has built up. America is now at a total of $19 trillion dollars. There are many dilemmas dealing with our economy, this all starts with America’s debt. The government has overused its authority in regard to America’s national debt by erratic spending, excessive borrowing, and by ignoring the average tax paying American.
Since its inception, the United States of America has had fluctuating amounts of debt. High points usually follow in the wake of war or recessions, and low points usually occur in times of relative stability in the U.S. Recently, however, the United States has amassed over 18 trillion dollars in debt. The national debt has been rising steadily since the 1970’s and experienced a large growth around the year 2009. From the years 1929 to 2009, the Debt to GDP ratio was approximately 48 percent on average (excluding the years within the World War II era), while from 2009-2014 the Debt to GDP ratio was approximately 97 percent. This increase was most likely the result of increased defense/war spending, the Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and the Troubled Asset Relief Program. All of these events
During presidential bids for the White House and Congressional deadlines for increasing the debt ceiling, huge debates break out as to the enormous amount of debt incurred by the federal government. Throughout our nation’s history, national debt at this magnitude is a new things. The accumulation of this amount of debt has its consequences, especially when the debt hits the nations GDP (Gross Domestic Product), or the revenue the nation takes in per year.
The U.S. buys more good and services from other countries than exports they are selling, this is called a trade deficit. In 2007 the United States had the worst trade imbalance in the world, meaning they had the largest trade deficit. The budget deficit and trade deficit have both increased the amount of capital the U.S. needs, which comes mostly from foreigners. The trade imbalance and the money borrowed from foreign countries causes us to have a greater debt to those countries. We then have to think of our bankers,
The Eurozone is facing a serious sovereign debt crisis. Several Eurozone member countries have high, potentially unsustainable levels of public debt. Three—Greece, Ireland, and Portugal—have borrowed money from other European countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to avoid default. With the largest public debt and one of the largest budget deficits in the Eurozone, Greece is at the centre of the crisis. The crisis is a continuing interest to Congress due to the strong economic and political ties between the United States and Europe.
This paper is mainly focusing on the historical background and causes of debt crisis in late 1970s and 1980s.
The intellectual foundation for cutting central bank policy rates to near zero is based on the traditional view that a lower cost of debt funding will boost aggregate demand via an increase in capital spending as well as higher borrowing by the private sector. The credibility of this viewpoint has, however, been increasingly questioned over time, particularly in the wake of Japan’s prolonged experience with ultra-low interest rates and its ensuing failure to encourage the growth of private sector leverage. Nominal interest rates remain very low in advanced economies, but there is considerable variation on inflation-adjusted measures on a cross-border basis. Real interest rates remain high in Japan due to deflationary expectations, despite the fact that prices have ceased falling. It was the persistence of deflationary psychology and high real interest rates that consequently produced a prolonged corporate balance sheet recession, where the main objective was to pay down debt. Risk-taking endeavours, such as capital spending, were, therefore, off-limits during this period. Despite having much healthier balance sheets, Corporate Japan continues to sit on a mountain of cash, equivalent to 48% of GDP. Meanwhile, US companies also continue to operate with high levels of liquidity. The willingness to use leverage during the current cycle has, however, been somewhat higher in the US vis-à-vis Japan. There is also a
Threats Geopolitical risk Refinancing risk in light of credit crunch Counter-party risk Slowing demand Supply-side risk
The European sovereign debt crisis, which made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties (Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim, 2012), had already badly hurt the economies in “PIIGS”, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. This financial contagion continues to spread throughout the euro area, and becomes a dangerous threat not only to European economy, but also to global economy.