The End Of The Long Term Credit Cycle

The United States economy is racing ahead at dangerous speeds, and it may be too late to prevent the return of widespread inflation. Ideally the economy should move ahead gradually and grow at a steady manageable rate. Mae West once stated “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful” and it seems the U.S. Treasury Secretary agrees. The Secretary announced that due to our increasing surplus and booming economy, instead of having an outsized tax cut, we should use the surplus to further pay down the national debt. A tax cut, though most Americans would favor it initially, would prove counter productive. Cutting taxes would over stimulate an already raging economy, and enhance the possibilities of an

Using quantitative easing has helped the recovery of the USA and other developing countries. The Fed’s then limited their ability to pursue more measures, but congress ignored those appeals to help support the economy. The Fed’s decided to use smaller steps to help investor expectations and to prevent a possible financial crisis in Europe. In 2011 it was announced that the FED’s would hold short-term interest rates close to zero percent through 2013; to help support the economy. Soon after it was announced that using the “twist” operation would push long-term interest rates down, by purchasing $400 billion in long-term treasury securities with profits from the sale of the short-term government debt. Inaugurating a policy to help shape market expectations, which will raise interest rates at the end of 2014.

Operation Twist, a plan to buy long-term U.S. debt and sell short-term debt, which will result in a flattening of the yield curve and a drop in long-term debt yields, is a part of the expected future according to the Fed. This means that the historical lows in interest rates that we are seeing will continue in the short run. In the long run however, there looks to be a divergence from that short-run trend. Consumers and businesses in the long-run will get away from the de-leveraging process that we are seeing in the recent past and currently and begin to build up cash that will circulate more unreservedly. This will cause the Fed to set interest rates at higher levels in order to combat against the rise in inflation in the post-deleveraging period.

In the event that the American individuals really saw how the Federal Reserve framework functions and what it has done to us, they would be shouting for it to be nullified promptly. It is a framework that was composed by global brokers for the advantage of worldwide investors, and it is methodically devastating the American individuals. The Federal Reserve framework is the essential motivation behind why the cash has declined in worth by well more than 95 percent and the national obligation has become more than 5000 times bigger in the course of recent years. The Fed makes the "blasts" and the "busts", and they

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 's meeting dealt mainly with the issues that could stabilize the economy after the great recession. After creating a number of policies to fight the 2008 crisis, Chairman 's move to further reduce Quantitative Easing was a bit of a disappointment. The Fed will reduce its purchases of long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by another $10 billion a month. Apart from this, Fed is going to concentrate on maximizing employment rates, stabilizing prices and interest rates.

The United States Federal Reserve has been conducting open market operations in the financial markets since 2008 in order to drive down interest rates and promote economic growth following the 2007-08 financial crisis. The subsequent recession, dubbed the Great Recession, destroyed $19 trillion in household wealth and nearly 9 million jobs. The highly controversial quantitative easing (QE) program, which refers to the process of introducing new money into the money supply, has been effective in promoting US recovery over the past six years.

In an instant, a single organization, with minimal government oversight, can influence entire markets and monetary supply of the country with the largest economy in the world. The United States founding fathers established a government system to distribute certain powers of the federal government to particular branches that have checks and balances in place to assure efficiency and openness among its divisions. One may assume that the organization that controls the monetary supply of an economic powerhouse of a country would have strong oversight and control over the policies they carry out. The Federal Reserve, also referred to as The Fed, has a purpose, as a central bank, to protect and control the fiscal system of the United States to create a safer lending and borrowing market for private citizens, businesses, and the federal government. Americans perceive the Fed as an extremely powerful organization. Some have asserted, including Hillary Clinton’s spokesman, Jesse Ferguson, that “The Federal Reserve is a vital institution for our economy and the well-being of our middle class” (qtd. in Shapiro 7). Unfortunately, Federal Reserve financial policies have become detrimental to the growth of the national economy and the dollar, therefore, congressional actions against the Federal Reserve Bank are a necessity to avoid continuation of instability in both US and world markets.

A current elasticity issue is the U.S. Federal Government deficit spending that incurred a large national debt in which had a negative affect on our economy. “The U.S. Federal Government has spent more money than what it is bringing in for Americans. This is known as the ‘crowding-out effect’ which causes the Federal Reserve to increase unaffordable interest rates. In a recent Los Angeles Times article, 2011, Tom Petruno reports that, “as of June 18, 2011, the Federal Reserve has been trying to bail the U.S out of debt in the past year by purchasing the Treasury’s Net bond issuance and created $600 billion new paper bills for the financial system via bond purchases since November 2010.” (Petruno, 2011) On March 15, 2011, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FBR) reported that, “the Fed Committee is promoting a stronger pace for economic recovery and have expanded its holdings on securities. They have reinvested principal payments from the security holdings and will invest an additional amount of $600 billion into long-term treasury securities by the end of the fiscal year. Feds state that household expenditures, business investments in equipment, and software continue to expand throughout the nation. The nonresidential structures remain weak at this time and the housing sector is still depressed. There have been some improvements in the labor market that is slowly decreasing the unemployment rate.” The Fed Board

The Federal Reserve System is the most powerful institution in the United States economy. Functioning as the central bank of the United States, acting as a regulator, the lender of last resort, and setting the nation’s monetary policy via the Federal Open Market Committee, there is no segment of the American economy unaffected by the Federal Reserve [endnoteRef:1]. This power becomes even more substantial in times of “unusual and exigent circumstances,” as Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act gives authority to the Board of Governors to act unilaterally in lending and market making operations during financial crisis[endnoteRef:2]. As illustrated by their decision making in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 Great Recession,

To begin, The Federal Reserve System opted to raise interest rates that were placed near zero years ago in order to aid the economy’s growth and prevent inflation from exceeding the target number. Several factors including: the five percent drop in the unemployment rate, and the increase in wages, and the outlook on future inflation contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision take this action. However, the increase in interest rates in December has generated mixed results, and it appeared the Federal Reserve would announce the interest rates were going to increase again. Instead, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that there were better days ahead for the economy, and a slow and careful approach to future increases in the interest rate would serve the economy best, ensuring the growth is maintained. Although the interest rates remained the same early in 2016, they are expected to increase during the June meeting of the Federal Reserve. but cited the economy needed low interest rates in order for the economy to maintain growth. I find it interesting that Yellen continues to worry about inflation growing in the coming years, although the interest rate increase should keep inflation in check through its effect of the economic markets. Yellen sites that she would like the inflation to become and stay at 2 percent each year. However, the current inflation rate is .9 percent, so the the economy is a long way from achieving its target inflation rate

Over the past decade, the Fed has responded fairly to inflation and unemployment. According to the Federal Reserve (2017), between late 2008 (the era of the Great Recession) and October 2014, the Federal Reserve purchased longer-term mortgage-backed securities and notes issued by certain government-sponsored enterprises, as well as longer-term Treasury bonds and notes. In essence, lowering the level of longer-term interest rates and improving financial conditions (the Fed.com, 2017).

Janet Yellen states, “the possibility that low long-term interest rates are a signal that the economy's long-run growth prospects are dim….depressed long-term growth prospects put sustained downward pressure on interest rates. To the extent that low long-term interest rates tell us that the outlook for economic growth is poor, all of us should be very concerned, for--as we all know--economic growth lies at the heart of our nation's, and the world's, future prosperity.” A high interest rate is usually set when an economy is already well off. An example of an economy that's well off is with the result of inflation. But if inflation is left unchecked it will lead to a loss of purchasing power meaning that your dollar is worth less than what it was before. This is where high interest rates become a great convenience to the economy. Though this may sound proficient, ultimately a high interest rate that lasts lead to struggles within the economy. Borrowing will become more difficult due to rates being to high which will also cause less productivity to

The Great Recession inflicted abundant harm in the U.S. and global economy; 8.7 million jobs vanished (Center on Budget), 9.3 million Americans lost their homes (Kusisto), and the U.S. GDP fell below what the economy was capable to produce (Center on Budget). The financial crisis was unforeseen by millions and few predicted that the market would enter a recession. Due to the impact that the recession had, several studies have been conducted in order to determine what caused the recession and if it could have been prevented. Government intervention played a key role in the crisis by providing the bailout money that saved those “Too Big to Fail” institutions. Due to the amount of money invested in the bailout and the damage that the financial crisis had on the U.S. population, “Too Big to Fail Banks”, and financial regulation are two of the biggest focuses of the presidential candidates. Politicians might assure voters that change will occur, but is it to late for change to be efficient, are the financial institutions making the same mistakes that led to the financial crisis?

Following a cut in the discount rate (the rate at which the Federal Reserve lends to depository institutions) in August of that year, the Federal Open Market Committee began to ease monetary policy in September 2007, reducing the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. As indications of economic weakness proliferated, the Committee continued to respond, bringing down its target for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 325 basis points by the spring of 2008. In historical comparison, this policy response stands out as exceptionally rapid and proactive. In taking these actions, we aimed both to cushion the direct effects of the financial turbulence on the economy and to reduce the virulence of the so-called adverse feedback loop, in which economic weakness and financial stress become mutually reinforcing. (Bernanke, “The Crisis and the Policy

Therefore, the quantitative easing adopted from 2009 was trying to gradually resume sustainable economic growth. Quantitative easing has helped to avert what could have been a second great depression (Wall Street, 2011). The US economy has been clawing its way out of the recession in 2009 and recovery has been slow compared to previous economic cycles. Regular review of the pace of securities purchase by the Federal reserve and the overall size of asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and adjusting the program as need be will help foster maximum employment and price stability.