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The Impact Of ESNO Cycles

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Our text states that a lot of research must be done before ESNO cycles can potentially be linked to anthropogenic global warming (Kitchen, 2016). Dr. McPhaden with the NOAA and NASA scientists have been researching this issue and working on climate models. They have determined that there is significant probability that extreme El Nino events will double in the 21st century. Rather than extreme ESNO events occurring about every 20 years, they will occur every ten years. These extreme climatic events have global impacts and could have significant socio-economic impacts including property damage, casualties and ecosystem damage (Cai et al, 2014), as well as result in vast population migrations which have huge impacts on public health …show more content…

The modeling indicates that the increases in GHG cause this "pump" or the Brewer-Dobson circulation, to accelerate resulting in tropical and mid-southern latitudes showing no signs of ozone recovery into the next century. They also determined that there may be an over accumulation in the mid-latitudes which may drive O3 into the troposphere (Climate Change and Atmospheric Circulation Will Make for Uneven Ozone Recovery, 2009). In addition to the health effects due to UV-B radiation, there is evidence that this change in atmospheric circulation forced by GHG concentrations has an impact on the ITCZ and monsoon seasons. Some areas see a reduction in precipitation, adversely efecting agriculture while other regions see an increase in precipitation causing flooding, displacement etc (Mohtadi, Prange and Steinke, 2016).
An article in Nature discusses climate modeling as it relates to El Nino events. According to Cai et al in Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, global warming from anthropogenic sources may have a compounding effect on the frequency and intensity of ENSO. The article states this could have significant socio-economic impacts. (Cai et al, 2013). Dr. McPhaden with the NOAA uncovered a

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