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The Pros And Cons Of Animal Spirits

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Animal Spirits: Are they Justified this Time?

“Animal Spirits” is the latest buzzword being used to describe the powerful market rally that continues to occur since President Trump was elected on November 8th. In fact, the S&P 500 has rallied over 11% since the election. What exactly are animal spirits?

Famous Economist John Maynard Keynes used the term in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, saying: “there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which …show more content…

Broken down to a simplistic formula, more spending and less revenue through taxes equates to more government debt. How much more? For estimate sake, the Tax Policy Center (TPC) (which aims to be nonpartisan) claims that Trump’s tax cuts will raise the National debt by approximately $7 Trillion by 2026 ($700 billion per year). Assuming this number is in the ballpark, it’s no wonder the market has rallied, as an extra $700 billion a year in fiscal stimulus should be great for the economy. But will these measures finally produce sustainable growth? “Animal spirits” would say …show more content…

History tells us that tax cuts have had a simulative effect in the past. However, it is less certain how effective they will be at current debt levels. Remembering that our current debt to GDP ratio is approximately 105%, history has shown that once debt to GDP rises to 100% growth slows significantly. Additionally, since the end of the great recession in 2009, it has become evident that more government debt ($8.431 trillion) on top of several trillion in monetary stimulus has done little to spur economic growth.

The main question then becomes: how should one invest their hard earned savings with so much uncertainty? After all, if the tax-cuts work we may be at the beginning of another economic expansion that will leave the US in great shape going forward. However if they are unsuccessful, we will have a suffocating level of debt with nothing to show for

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