United States : Interest Rate Hike

After the economy hit a slowdown in the first quarter of 2015, the US economy has likely sped up in the second quarter. The labor and real estate markets are staying steadily on their recovery paths and should let the Federal Reserve,

Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve (hereinafter alternatively "the Fed") Board of Governor's current assessment of economic activity across all of the Fed Districts is slow to moderate with the sole exception of the St. Louis District which reported a decline in economic activity (Beige book,

QE3 began in September of 2012 with a gross domestic product increasing by 4.5%, which is an impressive gain over the previous years of very little growth, GDP currently, has had a relatively steady increase over each quarter amounting to 3.9% for the most recent data. However, while GDP is of serious concern, inflation and unemployment rates have not been so easily persuaded. According the Bureau of Labor Statistics (1), in September 2013 unemployment was in a downswing but still resided at 7.2%, much higher than the Feds target rate of 5%. Currently unemployment is at 5.8% which is within the realm of the Fed’s goal. Inflation has

The discussion of whether the Federal Reserve should raise the federal funds rate is a highly contentious one. Members of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) and academic economists disagree about what constitutes appropriate future macroeconomic policy for the Unites States. In the past, the Fed had been able to raise rates when the unemployment rate was under 5% and inflation was at a target of 2%. Enigmatically, since the Great Recession and despite a strengthening economy, year-over-year total inflation since 2008 has averaged only 1.4%—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (“PCE”). Today, PCE inflation is at 1-1.5% and has continuously undershot the Fed’s inflation target of 2% three years in a row. (Evan 2015) In the six years since the bottom of the Great Recession the U.S. economy has made great strides in lowering the published unemployment rate from about 10% back down to about 5.5%. In light of this data, certain individuals believe that the Federal Reserve should move to increase the federal funds rate in 2015 because unemployment is near 5% and inflation should bounce back on its own (Derby 2015). However, this recommendation is misguided.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 's meeting dealt mainly with the issues that could stabilize the economy after the great recession. After creating a number of policies to fight the 2008 crisis, Chairman 's move to further reduce Quantitative Easing was a bit of a disappointment. The Fed will reduce its purchases of long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by another $10 billion a month. Apart from this, Fed is going to concentrate on maximizing employment rates, stabilizing prices and interest rates.

To begin, The Federal Reserve System opted to raise interest rates that were placed near zero years ago in order to aid the economy’s growth and prevent inflation from exceeding the target number. Several factors including: the five percent drop in the unemployment rate, and the increase in wages, and the outlook on future inflation contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision take this action. However, the increase in interest rates in December has generated mixed results, and it appeared the Federal Reserve would announce the interest rates were going to increase again. Instead, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that there were better days ahead for the economy, and a slow and careful approach to future increases in the interest rate would serve the economy best, ensuring the growth is maintained. Although the interest rates remained the same early in 2016, they are expected to increase during the June meeting of the Federal Reserve. but cited the economy needed low interest rates in order for the economy to maintain growth. I find it interesting that Yellen continues to worry about inflation growing in the coming years, although the interest rate increase should keep inflation in check through its effect of the economic markets. Yellen sites that she would like the inflation to become and stay at 2 percent each year. However, the current inflation rate is .9 percent, so the the economy is a long way from achieving its target inflation rate

The last five years have shown that traditional monetary policies predicated on interest rate management by the Federal Reserve no longer deliver the economic growth they were once believed to. Keynesian economics has proved to not be as effective as once thought, which has led to the Federal Reserve choose alternative means to stimulate the economy and indirectly manage exchange rates (Hakkio, 1986). The uncertainty over interest rate polices has fortunately not led to increases in inflation, which has typically been the case in the past (Kopcke, 1988). The current economic conditions and the approaches the Federal Research are taking however are cause for concern, and from a personal standpoint many decisions are being evaluated more precisely.

Greetings and salutations to the CEO of the organization. To help you interpret policies make by the Federal Reserve, I am here as an interpreter to help you understand the policies that are in place due to the natural disasters that have happened around the world. In October the Group of 30 International Banking had a seminar located in the nation’s capital. The consultation of the report will discuss the present status of where this country’s economy is and why the economy has been affected. This information allows us to determine the effects to the corporation’s state before and after.

Many observers believed that the 27-28 October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be a non-event, largely due to the fact that there was no scheduled press conference after its conclusion. In fact, the press statement revealed some interesting insights into the current line of thinking of FOMC members. Most importantly, it is abundantly clear that the vast majority are still inclined to raise the federal funds target at the 15-16 December policy meeting. I have recently written about rising dissent on the Board of Governors, notably the views of Governor Lael Brainard. It appears that her openly questioning the policy apparatus of Fed Chair Yellen has yet to sway the opinions of other

In this article Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that there is “no fixed timetable” for raising the U.S. interest rates. She also confirmed that rate increases will happen since strong labor market gain continue, which will push inflation above the current central back target. The current labor market has continued a growth trend and employers are adding new jobs each month. Additionally the unemployment rate has been held relatively steady. The chairman also warned that if job gains continue and unemployment drops further the inflation rate could rise, which will subsequently raise interest rates at a faster rate than planned.

Throughout last year, the media were solely focussed on the differences of opinion on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) between the doves and hawks as being solely about the projected increase in the federal funds rate. The baseline outlook proposed by Chair Yellen was for a glacial trajectory, but this was always subject to alteration depending on the underlying tone of incoming economic data. Since the financial crisis, however, US monetary policy has been underpinned by two separate pillars: 1) asset purchases, and 2) a zero-bound federal funds rate. Divisions of opinion between hawks and doves were evident before the onset of tapering asset purchases in 2014, and they

The Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on SEPTEMBER 20, 2017 at Washington DC.

On September 18, 2013 the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In addition, the committee agreed to continue its monthly $85 billion purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent. Inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored .

Leadership at the Fed has, once again, been found wanting. After indicating in her Jackson Hole speech in late-August that the case for a higher policy rate had recently strengthened, Fed Chair Yellen has flip-flopped and sided with the dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Her credibility as an effective communicator for the entire FOMC has, therefore, been compromised. Additionally, there are now clear signs of rising dissent amongst FOMC members, something which financial markets will have noted. The 20-21 September policy meeting released updated economic and federal funds rate projections and they indicate that the majority of members expect just one rise in the policy rate in 2016. This constitutes a downgraded assessment since June’s forecasts when two increases were projected. Meanwhile, expectations of rate hikes in 2017 have also been scaled back to two compared with three back in June. Furthermore, the anticipated terminal level of the federal funds rate has been modestly reduced to 2.875% from 3%. Given the continued projection of a long-term 2% inflation target, this implies that potential real GDP growth has been scaled back. The FOMC has duly obliged with a downward revision to 1.8% from 2%. Last week’s meeting concluded with the highest level of dissent since 1992. Fed Chair Yellen indicated that discussion was dominated about the timing of the next rate hike vis-à-vis whether a higher policy rate was

The Federal Reserve expressed concern at the sluggish recovery from the worst down-turns since the great depression. It said it would buy long term treasury bills every month till mid 2011. It also pledged to keep interest rates at low levels for an extended period which is seen as commitment to leave borrowing costs unchanged for at least two years according to Wall Street.