. A group of students organizes a bake sale in which they sell hundreds of cookies at $1per piece. They set up a table on campus and wait for students to come and purchasetheir cookies. Consider the following variables in this bake sale operation:1. Size of the cookies2. Weather conditions on campus3. Organization of the table4. Number of cookies sold5. Competition from other fund-raisers coinciding on campus6. Amount of advertising and shouting of the students at the bake sale table7. Number of students on campus that dayWhich of these variables is an output variable?a. 3b. 4c. 5d. None of the above

. A group of students organizes a bake sale in which they sell hundreds of cookies at $1per piece. They set up a table on campus and wait for students to come and purchasetheir cookies. Consider the following variables in this bake sale operation:1. Size of the cookies2. Weather conditions on campus3. Organization of the table4. Number of cookies sold5. Competition from other fund-raisers coinciding on campus6. Amount of advertising and shouting of the students at the bake sale table7. Number of students on campus that dayWhich of these variables is an output variable?a. 3b. 4c. 5d. None of the above

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section10.6: The Effects Of Input Distributions On Results

Problem 28P

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It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a single die repeatedly and add up the sum of your dice tosses. Your goal is to come as close as possible to a total of 7 without going over. You may stop at any time. If your total is 8 or more, you lose. If your total is 7 or less, the house then tosses the die repeatedly. The house stops as soon as its total is 4 or more. If the house totals 8 or more, you win. Otherwise, the higher total wins. If there is a tie, the house wins. Consider the following strategies: Keep tossing until your total is 3 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 5 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 6 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 7 or more. For example, suppose you keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Here are some examples of how the game might go: You toss a 2 and then a 3 and stop for total of 5. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You lose because a tie goes to the house. You toss a 3 and then a 6. You lose. You toss a 6 and stop. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You win. You toss a 3 and then a 4 for total of 7. The house tosses a 3 and then a 5. You win. Note that only 4 tosses need to be generated for the house, but more tosses might need to be generated for you, depending on your strategy. Develop a simulation and run it for at least 1000 iterations for each of the strategies listed previously. For each strategy, what are the two values so that you are 95% sure that your probability of winning is between these two values? Which of the five strategies appears to be best?
The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.
A group of students organizes a bake sale in which they sell hundreds of cookies at$1 per piece. They set up a table on campus and wait for students to come and purchasetheir cookies. Consider the following variables in this bake sale operation:1. Size of the cookies2. Weather conditions on campus3. Organization of the table4. Number of cookies sold5. Competition from other fund-raisers coinciding on campus6. Amount of advertising and shouting of the students at the bake sale table7. Number of students on campus that dayWhich of these variables are input variables?a. 1 and 2b. 1 and 3c. 1, 3, and 5d. 1, 3, and 6
*Hello I have the below problem and i already have solved questions a & b i need help solving c & d ONLY*** 2.30 A foundry receives an order for four custom-designed castings. The customer will pay$30,000 for each of four good castings. The customer will accept neither fewer normore than four castings. It will cost $15,000 to produce each casting. Each casting isproduced independently; the probability of a casting being good is estimated to be 0.90.a. How many castings should be produced?b. What is the probability of losing money on the transaction?c. It has been argued that the estimate of cost to produce each casting is not very accurate.Analyze the sensitivity of the optimum batch production quantity to errors in estimatingthe values of the cost parameters; determine how much the cost of producing eachcasting has to decrease in order to increase by one the number of castings to produce.d. It has been argued that the estimate of the probability of a casting being good is…