(1) As you already know Professor Hong is an extremely optimistic person. What decision would be made? (2) Today Professor Hong had an argument with his mom and is feeling extremely pessimistic, what decision will he make? (3) If Professor Hong wants to minimize his maximum regret, which activity will he choose?
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- ABC enters into a contract to help DEF, a ramen restaurantto design a market strategy to compete with DEF. The contract spans twelve month. DEF will pay P80,000 at the beginning of each month. At the end of the contract, ABC either will give DEF a refund of P25,000 or will be entitled to an additional P15,000 bonus, depending on whether sales at DEF at year- end increased to a target level. At the inception of the contract , ABC estimates a 30% chance that it will not earn the bonus and calculates the contract price based on the expected value of future payments to be received. At the start of the fifth month, circumstances change and ABC revise the probability that it will earn the bonus to 80% What is the adjustment to the service revenue ?The government is attempting to determine whetherimmigrants should be tested for a contagious disease. Let’sassume that the decision will be made on a financial basis.Assume that each immigrant who is allowed into the countryand has the disease costs the United States $100,000, andeach immigrant who enters and does not have the diseasewill contribute $10,000 to the national economy. Assumethat 10% of all potential immigrants have the disease. Thegovernment may admit all immigrants, admit no immigrants,or test immigrants for the disease before determiningwhether they should be admitted. It costs $100 to test aperson for the disease; the test result is either positive ornegative. If the test result is positive, the person definitelyhas the disease. However, 20% of all people who do havethe disease test negative. A person who does not have thedisease always tests negative. The government’s goal is tomaximize (per potential immigrant) expected benefits minusexpected costs. Use a decision…A US firm, having prior knowledge that Russia would invade Ukraine, bought 100,000 barrels of oil from Heritage Limited , a Trinidad firm . If in January 2022, the US firm enters into a forward contract to purchase the oil at US$65 per barrel to settle in November 2022, what is the gain/loss on the contract to the US firm? The spot price of oil in November averages US$100 per barrel. a. US$35,000 loss b. US$40,000 gain c. US$40,000 loss d. US$35,000 gain
- Sharp Outfits is trying to decide whether to ship some customer orders now via UPS or wait until after the threat of another UPS strike is over. If Sharp Outfits decides to ship the requested merchandise now andthe UPS strike takes place, the company will incur $60,000 in delay and shipping costs. If Sharp Outfits decides to ship the customer orders via UPS and no strike occurs, the company will incur $4000 in ship-ping costs. If Sharp Outfits decides to postpone shipping its customer orders via UPS, the company will incur $10,000 in delay costs regardless of whether UPS goes on strike. Let p represent the probabilitythat UPS will go on strike and impact Sharp Outfits’s shipments.a. For which values of p, if any, does Sharp Outfits minimize its expected total cost by choosing to postpone shipping its customer orders via UPS? b. Suppose now that, at a cost of $1000, Sharp Outfits can purchase information regarding the likelihood of a UPS strike in the near future. Based on similar…A multinational corporation is considering starting a subsidiary in an Asiancountry. Management realizes that the success of the new subsidiary depends, in part,on the ensuing political climate in the target country. Management estimates that theprobability of success (in terms of resulting revenues of the subsidiary during its firstyear of operation) is 0.55 if the prevailing political situation is favorable, 0.30 if thepolitical situation is neutral, and 0.10 if the political situation during the year is unfavorable. Management further believes that the probabilities of favorable, neutral, andunfavorable political situations are 0.6, 0.2, and 0.2, respectively. What is the successprobability of the new subsidiary?Federated Electronics, Ltd., manufactures display screensand monitors for computers and televisions, which it sellsto companies around the world. It wants to construct a new warehouse and distribution center in Asia to serve emerg-ing markets there. It has identified potential sites in the port cities of Shanghai, Singapore, Pusan, Kaohsiung, and HongKong and has estimated the possible revenues for each(minus construction costs which are higher in some citieslike Hong Kong). At each site the projected revenues are primarily based on these factors, (1) the economic condi-tions at the port including the projected traffic, infrastruc-ture, labor rates and availability; and expansion and modernization; and (2) the future government situationwhich includes the political stability, fees, tariffs, duties,and trade regulations. Following is a payoff table thatshows the projected revenues (in $ billions) for six years given the four possible combinations for positive and nega-tive port and…
- Harvard Pilgrim, an insurance company, has reimbursed Cooley DickinsonHospital for a large number of health services. It appears that overpayments may haveoccurred on many of the reimbursements due to errors in the billing process, or billing fora more expensive procedure than was actually performed. Cooley Dickinson claims that nomore than 1% of the reimbursements it has received have been overpayments. HarvardPilgrim suspects that it is being overcharged and wants to get its money back; so they hireyou to prove their claim. You audit a random sample of 500 reimbursements and find that20 of them involve overpayments. Perform an appropriate hypothesis test.Your company has a customer who is shutting down a production line, and it is your responsibility to dispose of the extrusion machine. The company could keep it in inventory for a possible future product and estimates that the reservation value is $350,000. Your dealings on the secondhand market lead you to believe that if you commit to a price of $400,000, there is a 0.4 chance you will be able to sell the machine. If you commit to a price of $450,000, there is a 0.25 chance you will be able to sell the machine. If you commit to a price of $500,000, there is a 0.1 chance you will be able to sell the machine. These probabilities are summarized in the following table. For each posted price, enter the expected value of attempting to sell the machine at that price. (Hint: Be sure to take into account the value of the machine to your company in the event that you are not be able to sell the machine.) Posted Price Probability of Sale Expected Value ($) ($) $500,000…Stephanie Carter has been gifted a sum of $50,000 by her grandparents on completing her graduation successfully. She is a fresh finance graduate and is excited to invest some money in the capital market, for which she intends to use the gifted sum of $50,000. However, instead of committing this money to the market immediately, she decides to wait for some time, work in the field and acquire some experience before proceeding with her intended investment. She thus contemplates an extremely conservative investment in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, at the start of year 5 from now. For now, she will leave the $50,000 in a fixed deposit with the bank which promises an interest rate of 6% per annum. She will require a return of at least 9% on her stock investments and 4% on bond investments. Stephanie would have to pay 25% taxes on any interest income. Dividends will be tax-free. Stephanie’s research has allowed her to narrow down on the following investment candidates: Stocks: 1.…
- Stephanie Carter has been gifted a sum of $50,000 by her grandparents on completing hergraduation successfully. She is a fresh finance graduate and is excited to invest some money inthe capital market, for which she intends to use the gifted sum of $50,000. However, insteadof committing this money to the market immediately, she decides to wait for some time, workin the field and acquire some experience before proceeding with her intended investment. Shethus contemplates an extremely conservative investment in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, atthe start of year 5 from now. For now, she will leave the $50,000 in a fixed deposit with thebank which promises an interest rate of 6% per annum. She will require a return of at least 9% on her stock investments and 4% on bond investments.Stephanie would have to pay 25% taxes on any interest income. Dividends will be tax-free.Stephanie’s research has allowed her to narrow down on the following investment candidates: Stocks:1. Pan-Elixir Ltd. is…Stephanie Carter has been gifted a sum of $50,000 by her grandparents on completing hergraduation successfully. She is a fresh finance graduate and is excited to invest some money inthe capital market, for which she intends to use the gifted sum of $50,000. However, insteadof committing this money to the market immediately, she decides to wait for some time, workin the field and acquire some experience before proceeding with her intended investment. Shethus contemplates an extremely conservative investment in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, atthe start of year 5 from now. For now, she will leave the $50,000 in a fixed deposit with thebank which promises an interest rate of 6% per annum.She will require a return of at least 9% on her stock investments and 4% on bond investments.Stephanie would have to pay 25% taxes on any interest income. Dividends will be tax-free.Stephanie’s research has allowed her to narrow down on the following investment candidates:Stocks:1. Pan-Elixir Ltd. is a…1. Redback Industries is a relatively small but successful and fast-growing maker of peripheral devices for cell phones including battery chargers, enhanced antennas, SIM cards, and custom carrying cases. Costco is considering purchasing Redback in order to sell the devices as private label offerings. However, Costco has set an offer price of $ 600M that depends on whether Redback’s current Annual Net Income is higher and significantly different from its 14-year average of $ 104.5M per year; Redback has indicated it is willing to sell itself to Costco at the $600M price. Use the following information to determine at the 95 % Level Of Confidence whether Costco will proceed with the purchase at the planned price of $ 600M or will lower its offering price if Redback’s current Annual Net Income is not greater than $ 104.5M per year. Redback Industries Normalized Yearly Annual Net Income over the last 14 years is $ 104.5M Redback Industries is currently reporting Yearly Annual Net…