19. Suppose you are tested to see if you have a rare disease. Assume that if you have the disease, your testwill always come back positive, but if you do nothave the disease, there is still a 0.001 chance that youwill test positive. In reality, only 1 of 10,000 peoplehave the disease. Your doctor calls and says that youhave tested positive. He is sorry but there is a 99.9%(120.001) chance that you have the disease. Is hecorrect? What is the actual probability that you havethe disease?

College Algebra
7th Edition
ISBN:9781305115545
Author:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson
Publisher:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson
Chapter9: Counting And Probability
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 14T: An unbalanced coin is weighted so that the probability of heads is 0.55. The coin is tossed ten...
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19. Suppose you are tested to see if you have a rare disease. Assume that if you have the disease, your test
will always come back positive, but if you do not
have the disease, there is still a 0.001 chance that you
will test positive. In reality, only 1 of 10,000 people
have the disease. Your doctor calls and says that you
have tested positive. He is sorry but there is a 99.9%
(120.001) chance that you have the disease. Is he
correct? What is the actual probability that you have
the disease?

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