2-7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.” However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results: Economic Scenario    Probability of Outcome    NPV Recession    0.05    ($70 million) Below average    0.20    (25 million) Average    0.50    12 million Above average    0.20    20 million Boom    0.05    30 million Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.

EBK CFIN
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337671743
Author:BESLEY
Publisher:BESLEY
Chapter10: Project Cash Flows And Risk
Section: Chapter Questions
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12-7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.” However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results:

Economic Scenario    Probability of Outcome    NPV
Recession    0.05    ($70 million)
Below average    0.20    (25 million)
Average    0.50    12 million
Above average    0.20    20 million
Boom    0.05    30 million
Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.

 

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