2-7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.” However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results: Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV Recession 0.05 ($70 million) Below average 0.20 (25 million) Average 0.50 12 million Above average 0.20 20 million Boom 0.05 30 million Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.
2-7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.” However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results: Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV Recession 0.05 ($70 million) Below average 0.20 (25 million) Average 0.50 12 million Above average 0.20 20 million Boom 0.05 30 million Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.
Chapter10: Project Cash Flows And Risk
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 17PROB
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12-7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated
Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV
Recession 0.05 ($70 million)
Below average 0.20 (25 million)
Average 0.50 12 million
Above average 0.20 20 million
Boom 0.05 30 million
Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.
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