70. In a classic oil-drilling example, you are trying todecide whether to drill for oil on a field that mightor might not contain any oil. Before making thisdecision, you have the option of hiring a geologist to perform some seismic tests and then predictwhether there is any oil or not. You assess that ifthere is actually oil, the geologist will predict there isoil with probability 0.85. You also assess that if thereis no oil, the geologist will predict there is no oil withprobability 0.90. Why will these two probabilities notappear on the decision tree? Which probabilities willbe on the decision tree?

College Algebra
10th Edition
ISBN:9781337282291
Author:Ron Larson
Publisher:Ron Larson
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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70. In a classic oil-drilling example, you are trying to
decide whether to drill for oil on a field that might
or might not contain any oil. Before making this
decision, you have the option of hiring a geologist to perform some seismic tests and then predict
whether there is any oil or not. You assess that if
there is actually oil, the geologist will predict there is
oil with probability 0.85. You also assess that if there
is no oil, the geologist will predict there is no oil with
probability 0.90. Why will these two probabilities not
appear on the decision tree? Which probabilities will
be on the decision tree?

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